The so-called presumptive nominee lost in West Virginia by 51%.  Wait a second you say–I thought Obama lost by 41% to Clinton, 67% to 26%?  You are correct, that was the score on the Democratic side.  On the Republican side, back on Super Tuesday Feb 5 (doesn’t that seem like a year ago?), John McCain got 12 votes–one percent–losing to Mike Huckabee by 51% and behind second place finisher Mitt Romney by 46%.  McCain’s campaign could only muster 12 votes?  Doesn’t the McCain campaign staff collectively have more that 12 friends or relatives in West Virginia?  Now, what does that say about the Fall? That Huckabee and Romney supporters are going to vote Democratic instead? Kind of puts the spin from yesterday in some perspective…

It’s just about time to start speculating on John McCain’s Vice President choice. McCain can either go after the electoral map, or balance the ticket ideologically or personality-wise. Here are the odds right now at BestBetting:
Romney (4:1), Pawlenty (6), Crist (8), Rice (10), LGraham (12), Jindal (12), Palin (12), Portman (12), Sanford (12), Ridge (14), Cox (16), Huckabee (16), Kasich (16), Lieberman (16), Hutchinson (2), Barbour (20), Coburn (25), Giuliani (25), Perdue (25), Watts (25).

I put my early money on Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. His fiscal restraint theme would probably play well this campaign season, and his stance on illegal immigration shores up a potential weak spot of McCain’s. And, he potentially puts Minnesota and perhaps Wisconsin in McCain’s electoral column. Along, the same logic, McCain could go for Florida Governor Charlie Crist for much the same reasons, although McCain may believe the already have Florida in the bag. The St. Petersburg Times puts the Crist VP meter right now at “Talk up those 27 electoral votes”. Romney odds on favorite? He might bring help in the West, but this is a tough marriage to see working. Romney has already raised his hand: “I think any Republican leader in this country would be honored to be asked to serve as the vice presidential nominee, myself included,” Romney told FOX’s Sean Hannity in a broadcast set to air tonight. “Of course this is a nation which needs strong leadership. And if the nominee of our party asked you to serve with him, anybody would be honored to receive that call … and to accept it, of course.”

In the NBA playoffs this week my beloved Phoenix Suns lost to the hated San Antonio Spurs in part because the Spurs employed the “Hack-a-Shaq” strategy so successfully.  Shaq was sent to the line again and again and couldn’t put in his free throws.  Coach Mike D’Antoni almost appeared surprised, not knowing whether to leave Shaq in the game or not at the end of quarters.  Yet, why should anyone be surprised?  Hack-a-Shaq has existed for over a decade.  The Suns and their fans blamed the Spurs for using a “non-competitive” (but legal) tactic, much in the same way that Obama supporters have claimed “foul” over the Reverend Wright issue.  But isn’t it a matter of preparation?  If you know it’s coming, don’t you prepare for the risk?  Obama’s campaign, now in free fall due to Wright’s most recent comments, surely was aware of the Wright problem early on.  Why didn’t they take action before it exploded?  If Obama’s campaign says anything about Politics 2.0, it’s that you should listen to ALL the negative buzz and come up with defensive strategies, because you have to react quick when they emerge.  Let’s take a look at the early warning sings of the Wright problem: (more…)

After Clinton’s 10-point, er… 9.5-point… if you go by delegates, 8-point win in Pennsylvania, people are asking why Obama can’t close the deal. He’s the leader, right? The “presumptive candidate”? Certainly, presumptive candidates aren’t supposed to lose, that’s a no brainer. But how big a win should we expect from the presumptive candidate? For comparison we can look at how John McCain has done since he wrapped up the Republican nomination on March 4. On that night, he won all four states: Ohio (60%), Rhode Island (65), Texas (51… as many of his would-be voters were busy voting for Hillary), and Vermont (72). Only two states have had Republican primaries since then: he won Mississippi on March 11 with 79%, and Pennsylvania last week with 73%. So let’s call 70% the breakeven point–above it and you’re fine, below it and people are talking. Of course, if Obama was getting 70% or more now, the race really would be over.

Here are the latest odds for Democrat VP: Richardson, B 3… Sebelius, K 6… Clinton, H 8… Obama, B 8… Webb, J 8… Bayh, E 12… Bloomberg, M 14… McCaskill, C 14… Clarke, W 16… Gore, A 16… Kaine, T 16 … Nunn, S 16… Warner, M 16… Napolitano, J 20… Zinni, A 20… Casey, B 25… Edwards, J 25… Harold Ford Jnr 25… Nelson, B 25… Strickland, T 25… Biden, J 33… Daschle, T 33… Dodd, C 33… Doyle, J 33… Feinstein, D 33… Hamilton, L 33… Pelosi, N 33… Rendell, E 33… Powell, C 50… Sanford Bishop 66

Changes in Wonkosphere buzz share suggest that Hillary Clinton will pull out a not-large-enough victory in Pennsylvania tomorrow, perhaps with a lead in popular votes of 3-6% but tied in delegates earned.  During Obama’s two bad weeks, liberal buzz share favored Clinton 60-40, a distinct reversal from the previous month or so.  In the last ten days though it has flipped back, with Obama ahead 60-40 and stable as can be.  Local polls seem to also indicate a relatively stable margin still favoring Clinton, but down in the single digits.  A four-point win for Clinton is not a win, really, but only a loss could keep her from moving onto Indiana and North Carolina… Professional bettors have Clinton as a 2:5 favorite to win Pennsylvania, and Obama at 1:6 to win the Democrat nomination. 

Throughout the campaign season John McCain’s buzz share in Wonkosphere shot up after almost every debate as the format gave him an opportunity to shine.  Now, McCain is still winning debates, even when he isn’t a participant!  Most of the pundits agree that the de facto winner of last night’s Clinton-Obama debate was McCain, as Clinton turned in a better performance, continuing the comeback narrative that will play out (one way or another) in PA, NC, and IN.   Taylor Marsh and The Moderate Voice have great summaries of blog and MSM opinion on the debate.  I’ll reproduce here what I thought were the most representative and interesting posts. (more…)

It must be spring of an election year, because like clockwork I got my first Ralph Nader mailing, or rather, Nader/Gonzalez mailing.  Read below the fold for some observations… (more…)

The term “jump the shark” is a reference to the episode of Happy Days where the show’s beloved star Fonzie decides to do a stunt by jumping a waterski over a shark tank (see Reno 911’s hilarious takeoff…).  The premise is that when all the creativity in a show is long gone and there’s nothing left to say, it’s time to do The Jump, some outrageous attempt to generate attention for another three seconds.  Could there be a better description of the Democratic campaign right now?

Take two candidates who have said 37,500 words a day for the last 18 months, who aren’t 3 mm away from one another policy-wise, throw in more campaign money than ever, and add a 24/7-hungry media and what do you expect to happen?  ARG (I know, I know…) has Clinton up +20 in Pennsylvania in a poll released today.  What else can we talk about over the next 3+ months?  I sense a UFO story on the horizon… oh, wait, that’s already been done…

Everyone seems to be claiming that Obama’s momentum will continue on for the next 2 weeks and he will win Pennsylvania, thereby closing this chapter of the campaign.  However, the term “momentum” implies “ever increasing”, and I am not sure the data bears that out.  I took the 16 Pennsylvania polls that have been done since March 24 and treated each as a true snapshot of the PA electorate, using the end date of the survey as the polling time.  If a day didn’t have a poll ending, I just carried over the previous day’s poll number, and if a day had two or more polls ending, I averaged them.  The graph below shows the gap between Clinton and Obama (positive means Clinton is ahead).  You’ll see that while April Fools was bad for her, she seems to have recovered, albeit not to the level prior to the drop-off.  I am not sure that a 6 or 8 percent win means much for her, but if the current trend continues she could end up over 10 percent again.