by WonkoKevin

Iowa and New Hampshire were key. Always have been. Until they were over, and then South Carolina was the turning point. And then Tsunami Tuesday was the non-turning point. I think somewhere along the way Maine and Wyoming were important. What can we make of this campaign season that continues to refuse to conform? In Politics 1.0, averages and totals were the key stats–how many votes, how many delegates, etc. In Politics 2.0, it’s not the averages that define where things are going but rather the extremes. In old politics, the center wagged the extremes; in new politics, the extremes wag the average. When it comes to extremes this campaign season, one place in the U.S. dominates–the Inner West. Maybe we should look to the Inner West for where the body politic is heading.

The Inner West of the U.S. handed many of the candidates their best results of the season. In Utah, Mitt Romney won an astonishing 90%. Ron Paul had his best showing in Montana, at 25%. Barack Obama loves Iowa, which handed him a 79% victory. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee were big shots in the South, but it was the central plains where they brought it home–Thompson with 25% in Wyoming and Huckaee with 60% in Kansas (equalling what he got in Arkansas, his home state). Even Duncan Hunter had his best outing in the Inner West with 2% in Nevada.

There were several other patterns I observed. First, the South gave two of the three remaining candidates their biggest wins. Hillary Clinton pulled down 70% in Arkansas, and John McCain’s biggest victory to date came in Mississippi (79%). Delaware awarded hometome boy Joe Biden his best showing (3%); Michigan’s shortened list resulted in best outings for Chris Dodd (1%), Mike Gravel (0.5%), and and Dennis Kucinich (4%); John Edwards (30% in Iowa) and Bill Richardson (5% in New Hampshire) faded early; and Rudy Giuliani really did do his best in Florida, just like he had planned (15%). Alan Keyes, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson didn’t register above 0.5%.

by WonkoKevin

Republican candidate and immigration reform champion Tom Tancredo is hinting that he might drop out of the Presidential race.  He announced yesterday that he would not be running for congress for 2008: “The issue (immigration reform) now has a life of its own and it doesn’t need one particular person to champion it… I feel my job, my task, has been completed. And I am very much at peace with the idea that if I’m not elected president then I won’t be running (for another term in Congress).”

His entire run for president has been based on him leading immigration reform, and now he’s saying it doesn’t need any single person to lead it?  Sounds like he just deconstructed the foundation of his candidacy.   

by WonkoKevin

Ron Paul led all Republicans in Wonkosphere buzz share one day following Tavis Smiley’s PBS All American Presidential Forums. Paul’s buzz share amongst conservative bloggers increased from 14% to 21%, beating out Rudy Giuliani who fell below 20% buzz share for the first time in ten days. The forum was notable for its empty podia–the front runners were not there, which has peeved off more than a few conservatives. Bloggers tended to concede the debate to either Paul or Mike Huckabee, who got a 2% increase in buzz share from the event. Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, and Alan Keyes also has buzz share increases in the 2-3% range… The biggest “loser” of the event? Mitt Romney. Romney’s buzz share plummeted from 21% to 11%… For more discussion, Richard Rhodes has provided a nice analysis of the debate’s content.

Tom Tancredo got everybody’s attention, but it was hard to tell the difference between conservatives and liberals on this one–they all responded negatively to Tancredo’s statement he made in Iowa last week concerning the bombing of Islamic holy sites.
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