by WonkoKevin

McCain or Romney will win Florida, and to the victor comes a potentially huge boost for Tsunami Tuesday, which is going to require both Mo and TV money. The polls however show that the result is going to be razor-thin. I took the eight Florida polls that have been done in the past week since Fred Thompson dropped out. Can you say statistical dead-heat? While McCain is killing Romney in Wonkosphere buzz share (58 to 28% yesterday), the same is not true in Florida. McCain’s average edges out Romney’s, 27.00 to 26.88%. The pooled standard error is 3.33, so the 0.12% difference is beyond meaningless. I wonder if the margin stays the same whether a (e.g.) 30-29 victory for either one will make much of a difference? It will be fun to see how the pundits spin the results if it is that tight… On the Dem side, Clinton is going to win in a landslide (if she doesn’t THAT will be news) and she’s scheduled to give a victory speech and that will chew up the approximately 20 minutes of attention the Dems will get tomorrow night.

by WonkoKevin

John McCain has reached new heights in conservative Wonkosphere buzz, clocking in at 58% yesterday, compared to Romney’s 28%.  The race, as far as conservative bloggers are concerned, is down to McCain v. Romney, as they cornered 86% of all their attention.  Ditto is happening on the liberal side, with Clinton and Obama accounting for 85% of liberal buzz and 60% of total buzz after Obama’s overwhelming win in South Carolina.   McCain’s 58% is the highest one-day conservative buzz share we have seen this campaign season, beating Ron Paul’s 50% level which he hit in November.  Buzz share is a zero-sum game, so if McCain is surging it must mean others are hurting, and indeed they are.  Mike Huckabee’s drop is the most shocking, as he’s gone from a respectable 20% ten days ago to 3%.  Three percent!  Huckabee’s rode the blogosphere buzz train into the MSM spotlight, so this decline is likely a death march into Ignoredom.  Rudy Giuliani, who had spent five days above 10%, fell to 6%, and Ron Paul has been under 10% for the last three weeks.  The conservative blogosphere is now McCain’s to lose. 

by WonkoKevin

The popular metaphor right now, in both parties, is the circular firing squad. Candidates are spending more time shooting each other and less time attacking the other side (except if the target is Hillary Clinton, that is). Democrats are worrying the Clinton-Obama mud throwing will disrupt an already planned-for Fall victory party (as if Obama or Clinton supporters are not going to show up or will vote Republican otherwise, yeah…), and Republicans see Mitt Romney fighting a two-front, nasty war with both John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Well, the candidates and their campaigns may be being mean to each other, but it ain’t so in the Wonkosphere. It’s downright nice these days! Oh, it’s been nasty, but most bloggers’ attentions seem to have turned towards being cheerleaders rather than critics.

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by WonkoKevin

Yesterday’s buzz share numbers in Wonkosphere only partially reflect the post-debate buzz bump that some of the Republican candidates will get, but the early returns show a 4% increase in conservative buzz share for McCain, +2% for Romney, +1% for Giuliani, and -3% for Huckabee.  Overall conservative sentiment also favored McCain and Romney (about the same), with Giuliani and Huckabee being talked about more negatively. 

by WonkoKevin

Conservative bloggers for Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani woke up yesterday, stealing Wonkosphere buzz share from the other candidates.  Thompson’s conservative buzz share spiked to 18%–still not dominant–while Giuliani was above 10% (barely) for the second day in a row.  Does Giuliani’s movement upwards signify a trend.? Don’t think so.  As I predicted in mid-December, Giuliani won’t get bloggers attention again until after he wins something.  Giuliani’s buzz share was as constant at 20% for months and months, so 10% now is only half what is has been most of the campaign.  Who did Fred and Rudy steal buzz from?  Mostly John McCain and Mitt Romney, who each fell 5%.  Huckabee continues to be under 15% and Paul below 10%, so McCain and Romney still dominate conservative attention.

by WonkoKevin

While John McCain maintained a strong lead over Mitt Romney in conservative buzz share yesterday 40-23%, most of Wonkosphere turned attention to the South Carolina Democratic debate, and more specifically, the sparring between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Liberals and conservatives alike are gobbling up the good political meat–over 50% of the buzz this morning is about Obama and Clinton. Edwards was the third wheel, as his buzz share plummeted to the critical 10% level. On the Republican side, conservative buzz is very definitely concentrating. Giuliani was above 10% buzz for the first time in a long, long time, but it was almost all due to a Florida poll showing McCain now in front of Giuliani. Fred Thompson is also still in the buzz dumps, and poll at Townhall shows that a vast majority of Thompson supporters would go to Romney instead of McCain or Huckabee if Fred were to drop out. (P.S. Who gets the Duncan Hunter supporters? I imagine Romney too…) Huckabee was below 20% conservative buzz for the third straight day, and what the heck happened to Ron Paul’s bloggers? He’s been at 10% conservative buzz or below now for ten straight days.

by WonkoKevin

John McCain built a significant lead in Wonkosphere buzz share over the last 24 hours, leading Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama 28-18%. Part of that came from liberal bloggers–42% of their attention to Republicans was focused on McCain yesterday. Conservative bloggers also focused on McCain strongly. McCain led in conservative buzz share yesterday with 43%, followed by Huckabee (18%), Romney (15%), Giuliani (8%), Paul (7%), Thompson (6%), and Duncan Hunter, who announced he was dropping out, at 5%. Amongst Democrats, Obama led in liberal buzz share at 42%, ahead of Clinton (36%) and Edwards (22%).

by WonkoKevin

My predictions for the caucus and primary today are not based on any Wonkosphere hard data; as I’ve mentioned before, I think we’ve gone past the point where blogs are either future-predictive or insightful to the mood of a particular primary state, like Nevada or South Carolina. This may change come Tsunami Tuesday… My instinct is Clinton and Romney in Nevada, and Huckabee in South Carolina. The worry from Huck’s camp is snow in the northern area of the state where he is strongest. I could go on to say, “A McCain victory will mean…” or “If Edwards can get over 20% in Nevada…”, but I won’t. Who the heck knows anymore? Much to my (and probably your) delight, the electorate doesn’t seem to want the primaries to end. They’re not ready to select. When I talk to conservatives and liberals alike, they seem to change their mind daily about who they will pull the lever for. I myself change day by day–I don’t have anyone’s sign in my yard (I’m in Arizona, which votes Feb 5) because my wife and I can’t stay with our choice for more than two days in a row! As Chuck Todd at MSNBC said yesterday, March 4 may be the big day, when Texas and Ohio vote. According to USAElectionPolls, an IVR poll conducted on November 8 gave Clinton a 51-17 advantage in Texas, while the same poll gave Giuliani a slight but unsafe lead–basically it’s a toss-up on the Republican side. A December 1 Quinnipiac University poll gave Clinton a 45-19 lead over Obama in Ohio, and Giuliani a 29-13 lead over McCain. Of course, these are all pre- Obama and McCain and Huckabee and Romney wins, so those polls might not mean much now.

by WonkoKevin

Congrats to Mitt Romney on a win last night in Michigan. I didn’t do too well with the predictions, although I do have a hedge. I did say that I wouldn’t be surprised by Romney 34 McCain 31, only Romney got more because the 10% I predicted for Giuliani, Paul, and Thompson didn’t show up. Romney seems to have found his voice when talking economics in Michigan, and this can be a winning hand–the economy has risen to the top of voters’ concerns. But will the Romney campaign realize they have a strength there and concentrate on generating excitement? Or will they continue to spend time and money on the attack? Last night’s pre-emption of McCain’s speech would seem to indicate the latter. In my opinion that would be a waste of time. It looks like everybody’s going to stay viable at some level thru Tsunami Tuesday, and with perhaps no one being way ahead by then, TV time will be critically important. According to Financial Week, Romney is financially positioned far better than the other candidates. McCain is starving for cash, he doesn’t appeal to economy voters, and a win in SC is not likely to bring about enough cash quickly enough to catch up with the others. If Romney focused on a positive economic message, combined with his war chest this could lead to Minneapolis. But I wouldn’t bet on it yet…

by WonkoKevin

The polls for the Michigan’s Republican primary on Tuesday point to a close race, with some showing McCain ahead and some showing Romney ahead. Reading the buzz, nothing becomes more clear. We’ve got some bloggers saying Romney has a bit of breathing room now, but others touting McCain’s apparent surge of national support. Wonkosphere data would seem to favor McCain, but I don’t know how predictive that national edge might be of the Michigan results. Both McCain and Romney have enjoyed above-average sentiment from conservative bloggers, and for Romney this is quite a break from the pattern over the last month of a lot of negativity being thrown his way. No doubt a sign his supporters see MI as critical and are pulling out all the stops. On the other hand, McCain enjoys the lead in buzz share over the last two weeks, and has had buzz share increase for three days in a row. My predictions: McCain 35, Romney 32, Huckabee 18, Paul 5, Giuliani 5, Thompson 5. Romney 35-McCain 32 would not be at all surprising though either.