Image by Joe Crimmings, all rights reserved.

by WonkoKevin

Barack Obama might have come out of Tuesday’s debate with a pundit-proclaimed minor victory, but the Wonkosphere as a whole didn’t seem to see it that way.  Obama, who overtook Hillary Clinton for buzz share amongst liberal bloggers on Monday (first time in a long time), plunged 17 percentage points between Tuesday and Wednesday.  John Edwards, Clinton, and Joe Biden came out with fairly significant buzz share increases.  Dennis Kucinich lost a point, even with the UFO (and impeachment) remarks.  Here’s a summary of who went up and down yesterday, post debate:

Edwards +7

Clinton +5

Biden +5

Dodd +1

Kucinich -1

Richardson -3

Obama -17

Watching the debate, I thought Clinton was playing shutout as a goaltender and then flubbed it with seconds to go.  The “license driver” exchange then in turn caused MSM and pundits to recast the entire debate as one of Clinton fending off questions, turning a win into a loss.  I would be surprised if this hurt her in upcoming IA or NH polls, but it certainly is a messy topic in the general election.  OTOH, Edwards’ effectiveness on Tuesday will help him slow down some of the negative momentum he’s had over the last few weeks.  Obama?  He was thrown a softball down the middle of the plate with the first question on Tuesday, and he laid down a sacrifice bunt.  Gotta go for the homer dude!

Photo by Mike Licht, all rights reserved.

Photo and license by Mike Disharoon.

by WonkoKevin

If Al Gore were to enter the presidential race, who would it hurt the most?  The conventional think he’d bite into Clinton’s lead.  That may happen down the road, but there’s slim chance of it happening out of the gate.  Wonks discuss the possible impact to Obama and Edwards–there’s only room for one not-Hillary candidate they reason.  Maybe, but Obama and Edwards supporters really like them a lot.  If they were looking for an alternative, the could simply switch sides with each other.  It’s more likely that Gore (hypothetically) comes into the race in the number four spot, so who does that hurt the most?  The candidates vying for #4: Bill Richardson and Joe Biden.  Wonkosphere numbers bear this hypothesis out.  As Gore’s buzz share has increased in the last three days, it’s had no effect on the buzz share of Clinton, Obama, or Edwards; but it’s directly eaten into Richardson’s and Biden’s buzz share. 

Update from CNN: “A source involved in Gore’s past political runs told CNN that he definitely has the ambition to use the peace prize as a springboard to run for president. But he will not run, because he won’t take on the political machine assembled by Sen. Hillary Clinton, said the source. If the senator from New York had faltered at all, Gore would take a serious look at entering the race, the source said. But Gore has calculated that Clinton is unstoppable, according to the source.” 

by WonkoKevin

Bill Richardson showed up on Face the Nation yesterday but got more Wonksphere buzz from conservative bloggers than from liberal bloggers yesterday.   Richardson stated: “”I believe it would be enormously unwise for the Bush administration to start another war before ending this tragic war we’re in today and it does sound like the administration is ramping up. You can just see it.”  Richardson’s campaign was also the first to announce third quarter fundraising results: “New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will report raising a minimum of $5.2 million in funds for the third quarter his presidential campaign announced in a release on Sunday. The campaign said it was “a strong showing in a historically difficult fundraising period…Most importantly, this amount ensures we will have the resources we need to compete in the early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,” the release went on to say. “We have strong organizations in those states and continue to expand our field operations by adding staff and opening new offices. Additionally, we have a very efficient campaign structure that maximizes every dollar that we bring in.”

by WonkoKevin

John Edwards had the biggest increase in Wonkopshere buzz share the day following the Democratic debate in New Hampshire.  Edwards increased buzz share from 20% to 25% amongst liberal bloggers, and also had the biggest increase in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers.  Other debate benefitters were Gravel and Kucinich, whose buzz shares increased by 2 percentage points each.  Dodd, Obama, and Richardson each loss a percentage point, and Clinton lost 4 percentage points.  Buzz on Biden went the most quiet, going down 8 percentage points.  Even though he had a good debate, it followed a day of intense buzz due to the passing of his Iraq soft-partition bill.  Edwards also got a lot of buzz amongst the MTV and MySpace audiences last night, being the first candidate to participate in a 1-hour forum hosted by MTV and MySpace.  Edwards relished the format and wowed them, according to the feedback from the MySpace audience.

by WonkoKevin

Last night’s debate at Dartmouth University in New Hampshire (full transcript here) is being reported by MSM as a fight between Hillary Clinton and the other contenders.  While that dynamic was obvious, I thought the debate was notable for the multiple lines of fracture that emerged, as candidates vied to differentiate themselves from both Clinton and each other.  Since it’s obvious that Clinton will be opposed seriously by someone, it is these secondary fractures which may be more telling and important.

(more…)

by WonkoKevin

A few days ago I complained that Bill Richardson was the anti-Ron Paul, having little internet presence relative to his poll numbers.  Perhaps Richardson has found his medium however in video.  Yesterday, the liberal blogosphere responded very positively to Richardson’s video entitled “No Troops Left Behind,” in which he explains the difference between his Iraq stance and the other Democratic candidates.  Richardson’s buzz share amongst liberal bloggers rose to 12% yesterday in Wonkosphere. 

(more…)

by WonkoKevin

A few days ago I blogged about a piece by Open Left entitled “Why National Polls Don’t Matter (A History)”.   We can use the same reasoning to come to the following conclusion: Pre-Iowa, there’s always room for a serious fourth contender.  Interestingly, the Democrat that appears best to take that fourth seat is Al Gore.

(more…)