by WonkoKevin

With possibly as little as two months before the first primary vote, the fluid Republican field is beginning to yield the patterns that will define how things split come early 2008.  Mick Huckabee’s third place finish in a recent Iowa poll and second place finish in a Value Voters straw poll gives him legitimate claim to being able to win Iowa (Huckmentum? Remember Joementum?).  Over the period of Saturday and Sunday, Huckabee finished third highest in total Wonkosphere buzz share, the first time he has gotten that high.  His buzz share trend in the past week is predictive of future positive movement in the polls occurring over the next 2-3 weeks.  Below is a graph of his buzz share; note that not only are conservatives (red) buzzing on Huck, so are liberals (blue).  Attention from the other side is a sign of legitimacy, and this is the first time this has happened to Huckabee.

Now check out the tone of his buzz over the last two weeks and see how positive conservatives have been, especially the last two days.

Huckabee buzz tends to go along with Romney buzz and against McCain and Thompson buzz, and this continues to be the case.  Romney’s buzz share continued to be strong (20%) while Thompson and McCain are kinda tankin.  Herein lies the pattern for how the Republican race is going to shake out: Giuliani v. Huckabee and Romney.  More abstractly, I think this signifies the party’s struggle between social conservatives and war-on-terror conservatives (economic conservatives are lined up behind Paul, but don’t seem to have much influence this time around).

Can Giuliani keep the debate focused on terrorism?  Can Huckabee keep the debate focused on social values?  Can Romney convince conservatives that he mixes the best of both of them?

One thing Romney and Giuliani have that Huckabee doesn’t, and that’s cash.  Ain’t no sunshine without no cash. 

by WonkoKevin

Here are the official votes from the Value Voters Straw Poll:

Mitt Romney, 28%
Mike Huckabee, 27%
Ron Paul, 15%
Fred Thompson, 10%
Rudy Giuliani, 2%
John McCain, 2%

I thought this would make an interesting case study of how blogs spin results. Romney won; could you tell from the headlines?

Assessing Huckmentum After Mike Huckabee’s Win at …

MIKE HUCKABEE DOMINATES VALUES VOTER SUMMIT IN WASHINGTON , D.C

A Huckabee Landslide (this is from a liberal blog)

Huckabee Crushes All Comers.

Fred Thompson Making Inroads With “Values Voters”

Values voters’ flock to Thompson

Thompson gaining with values voters?

Giuliani: You have nothing to fear from me

Giuliani Would Ban Gay Marriage

McCain to social conservatives: ‘I won’t con you’

Picture and license by VictoryNH: Protect Our Primary’s photos

Picture and license by Jayel Aherem

by WonkoKevin

Fred Thompson made his debut in the Michigan debate last night and came out a winner, according to both general consensus and Wonkosphere buzz share.  Conservative bloggers will be chomping on the Chris Matthews “slapdown” for a couple of weeks, and Thompson had the biggest post-debate bump in buzz share, at +4%.  Rudy Giuliani got a +3% bump in buzz share, followed by Mitt Romney (+2%) and Tom Tancredo (+2%).  The big loser was Ron Paul, whose buzz share plunged -14%.  Apparently Paul supporters went stealth last night, as they did not find much to cheer about last night. 

by WonkoKevin

Ron Paul rises, but Hillary Clinton surprises; Wonkosphere.com reports that buzz share results for September indicate the possibility of a wild campaign season.

(PRWEB) October 8, 2007 — Texas representative and Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul lived up to his Internet fame in September. Wonkosphere.com has reported that Paul finished in first place amongst Republican candidates for buzz share from conservative bloggers. Buzz share measures how much the political blogosphere is talking about a particular candidate, and Paul’s 16% beat out Senator Fred Thompson (13%) and Mayor Rudy Giuliani (10%). The real untold story however of Internet politics in September is bloggers’ obsession with New York Senator Hillary Clinton.

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by WonkoKevin

I have a quiz for you today.  After months of research, I have identified the factors that make for an ideal political supporter.  If you were running for office, what type of supporter would you like?

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by WonkoKevin

If you don’t sense some excitment and resentment in the air, you’re not paying attention.  Ron Paul led all Republican candidates yesterday with 32% Wonkosphere buzz share from conservative bloggers.  Why?  Third quarter fundraising results drew the the hoorahs on Paul supporters and raised more than a few eyebrows in MSM.

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by WonkoKevin

Ron Paul certainly was the focal point of conservative bloggers on Saturday with 35% Wonkosphere buzz share, up from 20% on Friday. The noise comes from a couple of story lines…

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by WonkoKevin

Ron Paul led all Republicans in Wonkosphere buzz share one day following Tavis Smiley’s PBS All American Presidential Forums. Paul’s buzz share amongst conservative bloggers increased from 14% to 21%, beating out Rudy Giuliani who fell below 20% buzz share for the first time in ten days. The forum was notable for its empty podia–the front runners were not there, which has peeved off more than a few conservatives. Bloggers tended to concede the debate to either Paul or Mike Huckabee, who got a 2% increase in buzz share from the event. Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, and Alan Keyes also has buzz share increases in the 2-3% range… The biggest “loser” of the event? Mitt Romney. Romney’s buzz share plummeted from 21% to 11%… For more discussion, Richard Rhodes has provided a nice analysis of the debate’s content.