Wonkosphere.com reports that Mike Huckabee and John Edwards were the most likable presidential candidates amongst their constituents in the month of November, followed closely by Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Barack Obama, and Chris Dodd. Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were the two leading candidates who had the most negative buzz from conservative and liberal bloggers, respectively.
by WonkoKevin
Is the increased buzz share that Ron Paul got in November a sign that the polls may move in his direction in the coming weeks, or an indication that Paul bloggers are mobilizing even more as we hit December? If Paul could pull out a third place finish in New Hampshire–and this is not inconceivable–it would be at the least a hassle for the other candidates, as Paul could then do even better in the southwest and west, more friendly to a libertarian.
Wonkosphere buzz share results for November are in and Ron Paul led all Republican candidates with 30% buzz share amongst conservative bloggers, his highest level yet. Paul was about 2-3 times more popular than the other candidates who were all tightly packed: Giuliani (19%), Romney (16%), Thompson (13%), Huckabee (12%), and McCain (8%).
Change in buzz from from October to November, which predicts changes in poll numbers, is favorable to Paul (+4%) and Huckabee (+2%), and not so favorable to Giuliani (-2%) and Romney (-3%).
The graph below shows Paul’s buzz share in November is his high-water mark over the past 5 months. The increase in August is primarily due to the fact that when Wonkosphere went public, Ron Paul bloggers added themselves to our directory in large numbers. The increase in November does not correspond with additional Paul-blogs being added–so either Paul-bloggers are being more active, or Paul is gaining more attention from “all-purpose” bloggers.
The graph also shows that Thompson and Huckabee have pretty much converged to the same point (and if early December is any indicator, Huckabee will be where Thompson was in June, and visa versa). Unlike the poll numbers which have only moved recently, Huckabee’s buzz share increased much earlier, showing the predictive nature of buzz share. Giuliani’s buzz share has remained remarkably constant, and as we’ve discussed, his buzz share goes up and down independent of the other candidates, which is good (he’s in charge of his own destiny). McCain’s buzz share has never recovered from a bad August, while Romney has remained pretty consistent over the time frame.
by WonkoKevin
As we discussed yesterday, amongst critics there was no clear-cut winner in this week’s Republican YouTube Presidential Debate. Wonkosphere buzz share numbers however can shed some light on who won and who lost.
The story line is: Fred Thompson (-5%) and Ron Paul (-4%) lost, by a lot; and everyone else gained a bit, +2-3%, essentially coming out in a tie. Thompson is on a 5-day slide, going from a respectable 15% buzz share amongst conservative bloggers 6 days ago to an on-the-borderline-of-being-ignored 6%.
Changes in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers between Tuesday and Thursday:
Rudy Giuliani, +2%
Mike Huckabee, +3%
John McCain, +2%
Ron Paul, -4%
Mitt Romney, +3%
Fred Thompson, -5%
by WonkoKevin
Over the last two weeks, John McCain has been working the trail harder than any other Republican candidate, spending 12 of 14 days out in the field. McCain’s Most Excellent Tour included 4 days in Iowa (a total of 11 different stops), 3 days in New Hampshire (8 stops), 4 days in South Carolina (12 stops), and 1 day in Michigan (1 stop). Conversely, Ron Paul’s schedule can only suggest he is being severely mishandled, or he is not a serious candidate. Getting nominated only comes from winning delegates, which only comes from being active on the trail. Paul’s schedule has only officially had 5 of the last 14 days booked, with 3 days (total of 6 stops) in South Carolina, and one day each in Pennsylvania and Illinois (huh?). Now I know that a candidate may be doing very important stuff on the days they’re not schedule for an official stop–private stops, fundraising, mainstream media–but there’s only 2 months left… Paul’s best chance at a high-place finish early on is in New Hampshire, yet he has not been there since September 29! (Data comes from Slate’s “Map the Candidates“.)
Rudy Giuliani–while being very busy with only 3 unscheduled days–gets the award for most travel miles, and perhaps the award for the most unfocused schedule: 2 days in Iowa and New Hampshire, and 1 day each in South Carolina, DC, California, Missouri, New Jersey, Colorado, and Nevada. Mitt Romney had 10 of 14 days scheduled, with 3 days each in Iowa and New Hampshire, 2 days in South Carolina, and 1 day in Florida and Michigan. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee both had 7 of the 14 days scheduled. Huckabee had 2 days in IA and HN, 1 in SC, and 2 in Texas, while Thompson had 2 days in IA and SC, 1 in NH, 1 in DC, and 1 in Nevada.
So kudos to McCain for working it. Romney, who has been probably working it hardest over the entire campaign, had a busy and balanced 2 weeks. Thompson and Huckabee, right idea but you may want to step up the activity level. Giuliani–what’s your strategy? It’s not clear to me what they think they need to do in IA, NH, and SC. Ron Paul–why wouldn’t you want to spend every waking moment of every day in New Hampshire?
by WonkoKevin
Ron Paul jumped to over 50% buzz share in Wonkosphere yesterday, amongst both conservative and liberal bloggers. Paul’s most excellent fundraising day also generated a ton of attention in mainstream media. As Wonkosphere’s summary for October discusses, though, the question is whether this is a one day blip, or if this represents a “step change” in Paul’s buzz share day-by-day–we’ll have to see over the next 7-10 days. If this does represent a new plateau, then we could expect Paul’s national poll numbers to increase. Paul’s attention came at the expense of all the Republican candidates except Fred Thompson; the biggest drops in buzz share were to Giuliani and Huckabee.
by WonkoKevin
There’s an interesting and not-all-too surprising story in the NYT about how Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, both long-time senators and Democratric presidential candidates, seem to have a pact to support one another. Here’s the original tidbit from the Boston Globe describing a back-to-back appearance: “The two Democratic senators greeted each other warmly, and Dodd, a Connecticut lawmaker, introduced his sister, Caroline Dodd, to his colleague from Delaware. Biden leaned in and said conspiratorially, “By the way, I’m for him. If I can’t make it, I’m for him.”
by WonkoKevin
Ron Paul led all Republicans in Wonkosphere buzz share yesterday at 40%, in part because of a Wired Magazine story accusing Ron Paul supporters of illegally generating spam mail with supportive messages about Paul. The Paul campaign denies knowledge of the spam mail, but the story illustrates that the actions of supporters are not fully controllable by a campaign, and this can be both a blessing and a curse.
The spam mail was classic in nature, so there’s little chance that anyone but the very net-unsavvy opened and read it, with titles like “Ron Paul Wins GOP Debate! HMzjoqO”, and content like ”Ron Paul is for the people, unless you want your children to have human implant RFID chips, a National ID card and create a North American Union and see an economic collapse far worse than the great depression. Vote for Ron Paul he speaks the truth and the media and government is afraid of him.” But spam email is illegal not only because its content is often fraudulent, but because its volume makes the internet less efficient.
Gary Warner, the University of Alabama at Birmingham’s director of research in computer forensics, had it right: “The question is, will we see more and more of this, or will this bring shame to the campaigns and will they make clear that this is not a form of acceptable behavior by their supporters?”
Paul’s internet support has never been something centrally controlled by the Paul campaign. Grassroots Paul supporters have largely self-organized, which is exactly why they’ve been so effective at getting attention. At the same time, any small number of supporters can go overboard and bring negative attention to the candidate, and there’s not much a campaign can do about it except denounce it.
Paul’s numbers have increased in New Hampshire, hinting of a 4th or 5th place finish. However, while campaigns built on netroots are great at generating enthusiasm and funding, they have a hard time getting people out to vote. It’s one of the major reasons for Howard Dean’s loss in Iowa in 2004.
While Paul’s supporters get the press, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and Mike Huckabee all have similar grassroots strength. It will be interesting to see what positive or negative effect they have on those respective campaigns down the stretch.
by WonkoKevin
There’s been a lot of attention on the Democrats in the last two weeks, mostly focusing on the Anyone But Clinton meme, and whether Barack Obama can be the ABC winner. So what’s been happening with the Republican candidates? Here’s a summary of the average Wonkosphere buzz share of each of the major candidates, and whether they’re trending up or down. In summary, Mike Huckabee maintains gains from several weeks back, Ron Paul is up again and in first place, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are stalling a bit, and John McCain is a roller-coaster ride. For those who think Paul has been on top the whole time–wrong. Paul’s lead though does mimic the strong showing he had in September overall buzz share.
Average buzz share, previous two weeks:
Ron Paul, 25% and trending up
Rudy Giuliani, 20%
Mitt Romney, 18% and trending down
Mike Huckabee, 12%
Fred Thompson, 10% and trending down
John McCain, 8% and highly variable day-to-day (I’m telling you, the guy needs to be in a debate every day, he kicks butt in each of them and then attention fades away. He can’t seem to generate any buzz with either policy pronouncements–have their been any?–or statements on the stump.)
Photo by Justin Henry, all rights reserved.
by WonkoKevin
So who won the Fox news debate on Sunday? Ron Paul came out on top of the post-debate straw poll, while other buzz seems to give the debate win to either Giuliani (any non-loss is a win), Thompson (more comfortable than in the first debate), or McCain (best line of the night, “I was tied up during Woodstock”). Most think Huckabee did well and Romney not so well, and there’s beginning to be active dissing of Hunter and Tancredo.
Personally, I think McCain won, which would give him 3 wins in the last 4 debates. When he’s “on” he looks the most presidential. Can he just keep debating? The fact is that McCain, in his own way, contrasts as much with the other candidates as Ron Paul does, at least during these debates. I thought the question “How would you beat Hillary?” was interesting in as much as none of them answered it.
Who got the best Wonkosphere buzz share bump? All of the candidates lost a point or two, and McCain gained+7, moving from 6% to 13%.
