by WonkoKevin

The so-called presumptive nominee lost in West Virginia by 51%.  Wait a second you say–I thought Obama lost by 41% to Clinton, 67% to 26%?  You are correct, that was the score on the Democratic side.  On the Republican side, back on Super Tuesday Feb 5 (doesn’t that seem like a year ago?), John McCain got 12 votes–one percent–losing to Mike Huckabee by 51% and behind second place finisher Mitt Romney by 46%.  McCain’s campaign could only muster 12 votes?  Doesn’t the McCain campaign staff collectively have more that 12 friends or relatives in West Virginia?  Now, what does that say about the Fall? That Huckabee and Romney supporters are going to vote Democratic instead? Kind of puts the spin from yesterday in some perspective…

by WonkoKevin

In the NBA playoffs this week my beloved Phoenix Suns lost to the hated San Antonio Spurs in part because the Spurs employed the “Hack-a-Shaq” strategy so successfully.  Shaq was sent to the line again and again and couldn’t put in his free throws.  Coach Mike D’Antoni almost appeared surprised, not knowing whether to leave Shaq in the game or not at the end of quarters.  Yet, why should anyone be surprised?  Hack-a-Shaq has existed for over a decade.  The Suns and their fans blamed the Spurs for using a “non-competitive” (but legal) tactic, much in the same way that Obama supporters have claimed “foul” over the Reverend Wright issue.  But isn’t it a matter of preparation?  If you know it’s coming, don’t you prepare for the risk?  Obama’s campaign, now in free fall due to Wright’s most recent comments, surely was aware of the Wright problem early on.  Why didn’t they take action before it exploded?  If Obama’s campaign says anything about Politics 2.0, it’s that you should listen to ALL the negative buzz and come up with defensive strategies, because you have to react quick when they emerge.  Let’s take a look at the early warning sings of the Wright problem: (more…)

by WonkoKevin

After Clinton’s 10-point, er… 9.5-point… if you go by delegates, 8-point win in Pennsylvania, people are asking why Obama can’t close the deal. He’s the leader, right? The “presumptive candidate”? Certainly, presumptive candidates aren’t supposed to lose, that’s a no brainer. But how big a win should we expect from the presumptive candidate? For comparison we can look at how John McCain has done since he wrapped up the Republican nomination on March 4. On that night, he won all four states: Ohio (60%), Rhode Island (65), Texas (51… as many of his would-be voters were busy voting for Hillary), and Vermont (72). Only two states have had Republican primaries since then: he won Mississippi on March 11 with 79%, and Pennsylvania last week with 73%. So let’s call 70% the breakeven point–above it and you’re fine, below it and people are talking. Of course, if Obama was getting 70% or more now, the race really would be over.

by WonkoKevin

Changes in Wonkosphere buzz share suggest that Hillary Clinton will pull out a not-large-enough victory in Pennsylvania tomorrow, perhaps with a lead in popular votes of 3-6% but tied in delegates earned.  During Obama’s two bad weeks, liberal buzz share favored Clinton 60-40, a distinct reversal from the previous month or so.  In the last ten days though it has flipped back, with Obama ahead 60-40 and stable as can be.  Local polls seem to also indicate a relatively stable margin still favoring Clinton, but down in the single digits.  A four-point win for Clinton is not a win, really, but only a loss could keep her from moving onto Indiana and North Carolina… Professional bettors have Clinton as a 2:5 favorite to win Pennsylvania, and Obama at 1:6 to win the Democrat nomination. 

by WonkoKevin

Throughout the campaign season John McCain’s buzz share in Wonkosphere shot up after almost every debate as the format gave him an opportunity to shine.  Now, McCain is still winning debates, even when he isn’t a participant!  Most of the pundits agree that the de facto winner of last night’s Clinton-Obama debate was McCain, as Clinton turned in a better performance, continuing the comeback narrative that will play out (one way or another) in PA, NC, and IN.   Taylor Marsh and The Moderate Voice have great summaries of blog and MSM opinion on the debate.  I’ll reproduce here what I thought were the most representative and interesting posts. (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Everyone seems to be claiming that Obama’s momentum will continue on for the next 2 weeks and he will win Pennsylvania, thereby closing this chapter of the campaign.  However, the term “momentum” implies “ever increasing”, and I am not sure the data bears that out.  I took the 16 Pennsylvania polls that have been done since March 24 and treated each as a true snapshot of the PA electorate, using the end date of the survey as the polling time.  If a day didn’t have a poll ending, I just carried over the previous day’s poll number, and if a day had two or more polls ending, I averaged them.  The graph below shows the gap between Clinton and Obama (positive means Clinton is ahead).  You’ll see that while April Fools was bad for her, she seems to have recovered, albeit not to the level prior to the drop-off.  I am not sure that a 6 or 8 percent win means much for her, but if the current trend continues she could end up over 10 percent again.

by WonkoKevin

Barack Obama’s race speech is the buzz item of Wonkosphere. Obama hit 70% buzz share in both liberal and conservative blogs, and the mixed reaction (very positive, still negative) led to sentiment about Obama about remaining the same. On a day when a McCain slip-up and a big endorsement for Clinton would have otherwise grabbed headline space, today’s buzz columns in both spheres are completely dominated by stories about Obama.

by WonkoKevin

There’s a ton of buzz in the blogosphere and talk radio about Obama’s Wright/race speech this morning.  My read of the reaction so far is that for the anti-Obama audience, the speech was acknowledged as good but the response didn’t put the issue to bed.  For the pro-Obama audience, the speech was at least his best of the campaign, if not otherwise historical. (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Iowa and New Hampshire were key. Always have been. Until they were over, and then South Carolina was the turning point. And then Tsunami Tuesday was the non-turning point. I think somewhere along the way Maine and Wyoming were important. What can we make of this campaign season that continues to refuse to conform? In Politics 1.0, averages and totals were the key stats–how many votes, how many delegates, etc. In Politics 2.0, it’s not the averages that define where things are going but rather the extremes. In old politics, the center wagged the extremes; in new politics, the extremes wag the average. When it comes to extremes this campaign season, one place in the U.S. dominates–the Inner West. Maybe we should look to the Inner West for where the body politic is heading.

The Inner West of the U.S. handed many of the candidates their best results of the season. In Utah, Mitt Romney won an astonishing 90%. Ron Paul had his best showing in Montana, at 25%. Barack Obama loves Iowa, which handed him a 79% victory. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee were big shots in the South, but it was the central plains where they brought it home–Thompson with 25% in Wyoming and Huckaee with 60% in Kansas (equalling what he got in Arkansas, his home state). Even Duncan Hunter had his best outing in the Inner West with 2% in Nevada.

There were several other patterns I observed. First, the South gave two of the three remaining candidates their biggest wins. Hillary Clinton pulled down 70% in Arkansas, and John McCain’s biggest victory to date came in Mississippi (79%). Delaware awarded hometome boy Joe Biden his best showing (3%); Michigan’s shortened list resulted in best outings for Chris Dodd (1%), Mike Gravel (0.5%), and and Dennis Kucinich (4%); John Edwards (30% in Iowa) and Bill Richardson (5% in New Hampshire) faded early; and Rudy Giuliani really did do his best in Florida, just like he had planned (15%). Alan Keyes, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson didn’t register above 0.5%.

by WonkoKevin

Both conservative and liberal bloggers have a laser-focus on Barack Obama, which is probably good news for him at this point.  Amongst all bloggers, Obama has regained his 60-40 buzz share lead over Clinton, and his sentiment is also up to “good” levels, equal with McCain’s.  Clinton has both lost both buzz share and sentiment over the last week.   Amongst our buzz list of 30 posts from conservative, liberal, and independent spheres, there are only 2 posts about John McCain; and on McCain’s buzz page, only 9 of the 30 top posts are from conservatives, thus indicating that conservative bloggers are not focusing much on making McCain’s case right now.