by WonkoKevin

Iowa and New Hampshire were key. Always have been. Until they were over, and then South Carolina was the turning point. And then Tsunami Tuesday was the non-turning point. I think somewhere along the way Maine and Wyoming were important. What can we make of this campaign season that continues to refuse to conform? In Politics 1.0, averages and totals were the key stats–how many votes, how many delegates, etc. In Politics 2.0, it’s not the averages that define where things are going but rather the extremes. In old politics, the center wagged the extremes; in new politics, the extremes wag the average. When it comes to extremes this campaign season, one place in the U.S. dominates–the Inner West. Maybe we should look to the Inner West for where the body politic is heading.

The Inner West of the U.S. handed many of the candidates their best results of the season. In Utah, Mitt Romney won an astonishing 90%. Ron Paul had his best showing in Montana, at 25%. Barack Obama loves Iowa, which handed him a 79% victory. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee were big shots in the South, but it was the central plains where they brought it home–Thompson with 25% in Wyoming and Huckaee with 60% in Kansas (equalling what he got in Arkansas, his home state). Even Duncan Hunter had his best outing in the Inner West with 2% in Nevada.

There were several other patterns I observed. First, the South gave two of the three remaining candidates their biggest wins. Hillary Clinton pulled down 70% in Arkansas, and John McCain’s biggest victory to date came in Mississippi (79%). Delaware awarded hometome boy Joe Biden his best showing (3%); Michigan’s shortened list resulted in best outings for Chris Dodd (1%), Mike Gravel (0.5%), and and Dennis Kucinich (4%); John Edwards (30% in Iowa) and Bill Richardson (5% in New Hampshire) faded early; and Rudy Giuliani really did do his best in Florida, just like he had planned (15%). Alan Keyes, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson didn’t register above 0.5%.

by WonkoKevin

Barack Obama might have come out of Tuesday’s debate with a pundit-proclaimed minor victory, but the Wonkosphere as a whole didn’t seem to see it that way.  Obama, who overtook Hillary Clinton for buzz share amongst liberal bloggers on Monday (first time in a long time), plunged 17 percentage points between Tuesday and Wednesday.  John Edwards, Clinton, and Joe Biden came out with fairly significant buzz share increases.  Dennis Kucinich lost a point, even with the UFO (and impeachment) remarks.  Here’s a summary of who went up and down yesterday, post debate:

Edwards +7

Clinton +5

Biden +5

Dodd +1

Kucinich -1

Richardson -3

Obama -17

Watching the debate, I thought Clinton was playing shutout as a goaltender and then flubbed it with seconds to go.  The “license driver” exchange then in turn caused MSM and pundits to recast the entire debate as one of Clinton fending off questions, turning a win into a loss.  I would be surprised if this hurt her in upcoming IA or NH polls, but it certainly is a messy topic in the general election.  OTOH, Edwards’ effectiveness on Tuesday will help him slow down some of the negative momentum he’s had over the last few weeks.  Obama?  He was thrown a softball down the middle of the plate with the first question on Tuesday, and he laid down a sacrifice bunt.  Gotta go for the homer dude!

Photo by Mike Licht, all rights reserved.

Picture and license by VictoryNH: Protect Our Primary’s photos

by WonkoKevin

John Edwards had the biggest increase in Wonkopshere buzz share the day following the Democratic debate in New Hampshire.  Edwards increased buzz share from 20% to 25% amongst liberal bloggers, and also had the biggest increase in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers.  Other debate benefitters were Gravel and Kucinich, whose buzz shares increased by 2 percentage points each.  Dodd, Obama, and Richardson each loss a percentage point, and Clinton lost 4 percentage points.  Buzz on Biden went the most quiet, going down 8 percentage points.  Even though he had a good debate, it followed a day of intense buzz due to the passing of his Iraq soft-partition bill.  Edwards also got a lot of buzz amongst the MTV and MySpace audiences last night, being the first candidate to participate in a 1-hour forum hosted by MTV and MySpace.  Edwards relished the format and wowed them, according to the feedback from the MySpace audience.

by WonkoKevin

Last night’s debate at Dartmouth University in New Hampshire (full transcript here) is being reported by MSM as a fight between Hillary Clinton and the other contenders.  While that dynamic was obvious, I thought the debate was notable for the multiple lines of fracture that emerged, as candidates vied to differentiate themselves from both Clinton and each other.  Since it’s obvious that Clinton will be opposed seriously by someone, it is these secondary fractures which may be more telling and important.

(more…)

Barack Obama led all candidates yesterday with 25% buzzshare in Wonkosphere.  This followed another debate in Iowa yesterday in which the consensus appears to be that he did very well.  Blue State is typical, saying “Obama shined in ABC debate.”  The Des Moines Register added, “He came off as knowledgeable and temperate. He looked presidential.”
(more…)