by WonkoKevin
Hillary goes 50 MPH down a road. Barack leaves 20 minutes later and travels at 60 MPH. How long will it take Barack to catch up with Hillary?
That is the dominant metaphor for the Democratic race now. Few predict that Obama will win outright on Tsunami Tuesday, but there is a strong feeling in the Wonkosphere that Obama has the momentum, if not the plurality. (more…)
by WonkoKevin
Hillary Clinton’s liberal Wonkosphere buzz share didn’t change at all yesterday, and that was big news… Huh? Couple Clinton’s non-movement with John Edwards’ buzz share shooting up from 10 to 30%, and it can only mean one thing–Barack Obama’s buzz share went down 20%. While there are several reasonable interpretations, mine is this: Clinton’s bloggers kept on talking about Clinton, and Obama’s bloggers took time off to blog about Edwards. Edwards has maintained a base of about 10% buzz for the past several weeks, and I don’t see those opinion leaders going away. My guess is they’ll turn their attention to Obama. That doesn’t mean that voters will, but it can’t hurt Obama’s chances. The other way to spin it is that Clinton’s base of bloggers is strong regardless of what happens with anyone else.
by WonkoKevin
McCain or Romney will win Florida, and to the victor comes a potentially huge boost for Tsunami Tuesday, which is going to require both Mo and TV money. The polls however show that the result is going to be razor-thin. I took the eight Florida polls that have been done in the past week since Fred Thompson dropped out. Can you say statistical dead-heat? While McCain is killing Romney in Wonkosphere buzz share (58 to 28% yesterday), the same is not true in Florida. McCain’s average edges out Romney’s, 27.00 to 26.88%. The pooled standard error is 3.33, so the 0.12% difference is beyond meaningless. I wonder if the margin stays the same whether a (e.g.) 30-29 victory for either one will make much of a difference? It will be fun to see how the pundits spin the results if it is that tight… On the Dem side, Clinton is going to win in a landslide (if she doesn’t THAT will be news) and she’s scheduled to give a victory speech and that will chew up the approximately 20 minutes of attention the Dems will get tomorrow night.
by WonkoKevin
Conservative bloggers for Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani woke up yesterday, stealing Wonkosphere buzz share from the other candidates. Thompson’s conservative buzz share spiked to 18%–still not dominant–while Giuliani was above 10% (barely) for the second day in a row. Does Giuliani’s movement upwards signify a trend.? Don’t think so. As I predicted in mid-December, Giuliani won’t get bloggers attention again until after he wins something. Giuliani’s buzz share was as constant at 20% for months and months, so 10% now is only half what is has been most of the campaign. Who did Fred and Rudy steal buzz from? Mostly John McCain and Mitt Romney, who each fell 5%. Huckabee continues to be under 15% and Paul below 10%, so McCain and Romney still dominate conservative attention.
by WonkoKevin
While John McCain maintained a strong lead over Mitt Romney in conservative buzz share yesterday 40-23%, most of Wonkosphere turned attention to the South Carolina Democratic debate, and more specifically, the sparring between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Liberals and conservatives alike are gobbling up the good political meat–over 50% of the buzz this morning is about Obama and Clinton. Edwards was the third wheel, as his buzz share plummeted to the critical 10% level. On the Republican side, conservative buzz is very definitely concentrating. Giuliani was above 10% buzz for the first time in a long, long time, but it was almost all due to a Florida poll showing McCain now in front of Giuliani. Fred Thompson is also still in the buzz dumps, and poll at Townhall shows that a vast majority of Thompson supporters would go to Romney instead of McCain or Huckabee if Fred were to drop out. (P.S. Who gets the Duncan Hunter supporters? I imagine Romney too…) Huckabee was below 20% conservative buzz for the third straight day, and what the heck happened to Ron Paul’s bloggers? He’s been at 10% conservative buzz or below now for ten straight days.
by WonkoKevin
John McCain built a significant lead in Wonkosphere buzz share over the last 24 hours, leading Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama 28-18%. Part of that came from liberal bloggers–42% of their attention to Republicans was focused on McCain yesterday. Conservative bloggers also focused on McCain strongly. McCain led in conservative buzz share yesterday with 43%, followed by Huckabee (18%), Romney (15%), Giuliani (8%), Paul (7%), Thompson (6%), and Duncan Hunter, who announced he was dropping out, at 5%. Amongst Democrats, Obama led in liberal buzz share at 42%, ahead of Clinton (36%) and Edwards (22%).
by WonkoKevin
My predictions for the caucus and primary today are not based on any Wonkosphere hard data; as I’ve mentioned before, I think we’ve gone past the point where blogs are either future-predictive or insightful to the mood of a particular primary state, like Nevada or South Carolina. This may change come Tsunami Tuesday… My instinct is Clinton and Romney in Nevada, and Huckabee in South Carolina. The worry from Huck’s camp is snow in the northern area of the state where he is strongest. I could go on to say, “A McCain victory will mean…” or “If Edwards can get over 20% in Nevada…”, but I won’t. Who the heck knows anymore? Much to my (and probably your) delight, the electorate doesn’t seem to want the primaries to end. They’re not ready to select. When I talk to conservatives and liberals alike, they seem to change their mind daily about who they will pull the lever for. I myself change day by day–I don’t have anyone’s sign in my yard (I’m in Arizona, which votes Feb 5) because my wife and I can’t stay with our choice for more than two days in a row! As Chuck Todd at MSNBC said yesterday, March 4 may be the big day, when Texas and Ohio vote. According to USAElectionPolls, an IVR poll conducted on November 8 gave Clinton a 51-17 advantage in Texas, while the same poll gave Giuliani a slight but unsafe lead–basically it’s a toss-up on the Republican side. A December 1 Quinnipiac University poll gave Clinton a 45-19 lead over Obama in Ohio, and Giuliani a 29-13 lead over McCain. Of course, these are all pre- Obama and McCain and Huckabee and Romney wins, so those polls might not mean much now.
by WonkoKevin
The pattern is familiar. Our relationship with a politician is not that different than our personal relationships. Attraction is first: how the person looks, sounds, their personality. Are we drawn to them? But it’s easy to like someone for one, or two, or ten dates. The question becomes, can I hang out with this person minute after minute, day after day? While we admit the power of attraction, we are pragmatic enough to consider more deeply what this person is really saying and doing, for it gives us clues as to what will come. While voters may become attracted to a candidate, in the end, given enough time, their policies and ideology come under careful scrutiny. It’s happened to Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney and John McCain and Ron Paul. All have enjoyed at some point in the campaign season huge Wonkosphere “buzz momentum” due to bloggers being attracted to them as a person, and then losing significant buzz share when bloggers began to scrutinize policy positions and ideology. Could the same thing happen to Barack Obama now? His buzz share has not decreased, yet, and the consequences of such would be huge as we’re now into prime time. But a perusal of the Obama buzz shows that liberal voters are questioning just how “right” Obama is, and whether he might be just a bit too right. (more…)
by WonkoKevin
Congrats to Mitt Romney on a win last night in Michigan. I didn’t do too well with the predictions, although I do have a hedge. I did say that I wouldn’t be surprised by Romney 34 McCain 31, only Romney got more because the 10% I predicted for Giuliani, Paul, and Thompson didn’t show up. Romney seems to have found his voice when talking economics in Michigan, and this can be a winning hand–the economy has risen to the top of voters’ concerns. But will the Romney campaign realize they have a strength there and concentrate on generating excitement? Or will they continue to spend time and money on the attack? Last night’s pre-emption of McCain’s speech would seem to indicate the latter. In my opinion that would be a waste of time. It looks like everybody’s going to stay viable at some level thru Tsunami Tuesday, and with perhaps no one being way ahead by then, TV time will be critically important. According to Financial Week, Romney is financially positioned far better than the other candidates. McCain is starving for cash, he doesn’t appeal to economy voters, and a win in SC is not likely to bring about enough cash quickly enough to catch up with the others. If Romney focused on a positive economic message, combined with his war chest this could lead to Minneapolis. But I wouldn’t bet on it yet…
by WonkoKevin
Bloggers have turned Wonkosphere into a love fest as sentiments go positive, especially amongst conservative bloggers. Mitt Romney’s buzz was at the head of the pack in terms of positive tone, and posts about both John McCain and Mike Huckabee have also been very significantly positive over the past four days. On the Dem side, posts about Barack Obama’s have been super positive over the last three days.
