by WonkoKevin

Could Rudy Giuliani’s Shaggate be the first big scandal of the 2008 campaign that has some stickiness?  As you can see from the Wonkosphere buzz share graph below, Giuliani’s buzz share has increased since the story broke 2 days ago, especially amongst liberals who are hovering like sharks.

It’s not like it’s only the left–conservative bloggers are also buzzing on it. This comes at the tail end of a bad week for Giuliani in Wonkosphere. Check out the tone in both liberal (blue) and conservative (red) blogs; the gray band represents the average tone of buzz amongst all candidates. According to these data, bloggers are talking more negatively about Rudy now than any other candidate… although he has not yet reached the McCain line (tone = 0.05; McCain was below this for almost a week during August, post Iraq cafe story). 

by WonkoKevin

Over the last two weeks, John McCain has been working the trail harder than any other Republican candidate, spending 12 of 14 days out in the field. McCain’s Most Excellent Tour included 4 days in Iowa (a total of 11 different stops), 3 days in New Hampshire (8 stops), 4 days in South Carolina (12 stops), and 1 day in Michigan (1 stop). Conversely, Ron Paul’s schedule can only suggest he is being severely mishandled, or he is not a serious candidate. Getting nominated only comes from winning delegates, which only comes from being active on the trail. Paul’s schedule has only officially had 5 of the last 14 days booked, with 3 days (total of 6 stops) in South Carolina, and one day each in Pennsylvania and Illinois (huh?). Now I know that a candidate may be doing very important stuff on the days they’re not schedule for an official stop–private stops, fundraising, mainstream media–but there’s only 2 months left… Paul’s best chance at a high-place finish early on is in New Hampshire, yet he has not been there since September 29! (Data comes from Slate’s “Map the Candidates“.)

Rudy Giuliani–while being very busy with only 3 unscheduled days–gets the award for most travel miles, and perhaps the award for the most unfocused schedule: 2 days in Iowa and New Hampshire, and 1 day each in South Carolina, DC, California, Missouri, New Jersey, Colorado, and Nevada. Mitt Romney had 10 of 14 days scheduled, with 3 days each in Iowa and New Hampshire, 2 days in South Carolina, and 1 day in Florida and Michigan. Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee both had 7 of the 14 days scheduled. Huckabee had 2 days in IA and HN, 1 in SC, and 2 in Texas, while Thompson had 2 days in IA and SC, 1 in NH, 1 in DC, and 1 in Nevada.

So kudos to McCain for working it. Romney, who has been probably working it hardest over the entire campaign, had a busy and balanced 2 weeks. Thompson and Huckabee, right idea but you may want to step up the activity level. Giuliani–what’s your strategy? It’s not clear to me what they think they need to do in IA, NH, and SC. Ron Paul–why wouldn’t you want to spend every waking moment of every day in New Hampshire?

by WonkoKevin

Yesterday I discussed who was hot (Obama, McCain) and who was not (Giuliani) in Iowa newspapers over the last two weeks.  Today’s analysis of state-level dynamics comes from the Concord Monitor.  Here are the number of articles per candidate over the last two weeks:

1. John Edwards, 9

2. Rudy Giuliani, 7

2. Barack Obama, 7

4. Hillary Clinton, 6 (4 of these were negative)

5. Bill Richardson, 5

6. Fred Thompson, 3

7. Mitt Romney, 2

7. Mike Huckabee, 2

7. Joe Biden, 2

10. Chris Dodd, 1

10. Ron Paul, 1

A few interesting things to note:

• Giuliani is by far getting the most attention by the Monitor, contrasting with his almost complete lack of coverage in Iowa.
• Even though Ron Paul and John McCain show strength in poll numbers here, they’re not getting attention from the Monitor (although McCain is featured on their blog today).
• Newspapers love the Edwards-Obama-Clinton battle.

I’ve previously noted that the Republican candidates are largely unvetted by conservative bloggers because of their obsession with Clinton.  It would appear MSM is in the same boat–they’re not talking about the Republican candidates either.

Wonkosphere.com buzz share results for October suggest that Barack Obama will gain ground on Hillary Clinton in national polls over the next few weeks, and Chris Dodd will also move up. The results also predict that Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney will begin to pull away from Fred Thompson.

(PRWEB) November 7, 2007 — Wonkosphere.com reports that voter sentiment seems to be pushing the Republican and Democratic races in opposite directions. “The Republican race, which has been very fluid, appears to be shaping up to be a fight between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson lost 50% of his buzz share amongst conservative bloggers in October, and that’s not a good sign,” said Steve Corman of Wonkosphere. “On the Democratic side, buzz share results suggest that Barack Obama is going to moderately cut into Hillary Clinton’s lead in national poll numbers over the next few weeks.”

The predictions come from Wonkosphere.com, a new web service that uses patented technology to track and analyze over 1200 political blogs. Wonkosphere’s buzz share is calculated every four hours and measures how much bloggers are talking about a particular candidate. In October, Ron Paul led all Republican candidates with 16% buzz share amongst conservative bloggers, repeating his win in September. Rudy Giuliani was second with 13%, followed by Mitt Romney (11%), Fred Thompson (7%), Mike Huckabee (6%), and John McCain (4%).

“Total buzz share doesn’t tell the whole picture though,” said Wonkosphere’s Kevin Dooley. “We have found that it’s not the absolute amount of buzz share that matters, but rather the change in buzz share which is predictive of movement in the national poll numbers. So while Ron Paul won October, he was at the same level of buzz share in September, so we don’t expect his national poll numbers to move. Conversely, Giuliani and Romney both gained buzz share in October, so we expect them to gain in polls, almost exclusively at the expense of Fred Thompson.”

Amongst liberal bloggers, Hillary Clinton (21%) won buzz share in October, followed by Barack Obama (16%), John Edwards (13%), Joe Biden (6%), and Chris Dodd (5%). Comparing these results to September, Wonkosphere predicts that Obama will gain ground on Clinton, Edwards will lose some ground, and Chris Dodd will begin to look like the front-runner for viable “fourth choice”.

All-purpose candidate Stephen Colbert made a dent in the Wonkosphere with the announcement of his South Carolina-only, two-party bid. Taking into account his late entry, Colbert had more buzz share amongst liberal bloggers than Al Gore, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel. Amongst conservative bloggers, Colbert got more share of buzz than Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Newt Gingrich, and Alan Keyes.

Technology makes measuring buzz share easy
The buzz share results come from Wonkosphere.com, a new web site which tracks and analyzes over 1200 political blogs each day. Patented technology from Arizona State University (ASU) is used to measure each candidate’s buzz share, as well as whether bloggers are ranting or raving about the candidate. Wonkosphere is operated by Crawdad Technologies, a new venture started by Corman and Dooley, who are also professors at ASU. “We knew that the 2008 political campaign would be influenced in unpredictable ways by the Internet,” said Dooley. “We created Wonkosphere.com as a way to give millions of political blog readers a way to stay on top of what was happening across the whole political blogosphere.”

“Technology allows us to keep track of hundreds of times more blogs than any individual has time to read,” added Corman, “and it also allows the analysis to be completely unbiased, so that we can report what’s going on in a truly non-partisan fashion.”

About Wonkosphere
Wonkosphere is designed for bloggers, media, political activists, and political junkies who need to stay on top of the 2008 Presidential race but can’t spend all day searching for the hottest and most relevant material. Wonkosphere has been highlighted by such outlets as USA Today, US News & World Report, Information Week, WIRED Online, MyDD, Andrew Sullivan, Lew Rockwell, Hugh Hewitt, and Reformed Chicks Blabbing. Wonkosphere provides an analysis of the political buzz that is timely and unbiased, made possible by tracking and analyzing over 1200 blogs and web sites per day with its patented text analysis technology. This technology measures each candidate’s buzz share and tone, and highlights the most representative and linked posts. Wonkosphere is a wholly-owned service of Crawdad Technologies, LLC. www.Wonkosphere.com

Image by Joe Crimmings, all rights reserved.

by WonkoKevin

Here is part two of our Do It Yourself “I Hate…” blog post.

If you’re a liberal, you know it’s about time to switch some of your anger from Bush to Rudy Giuliani. Wonkosphere is here to help. By choosing different combinations of the options below, Wonkosphere provides you weeks-worth of solid, proven material.

Today, the DIY “I hate Rudy” blog post…

If Rudy Giuliani gets elected, it will just mean more of:
a. the Bush II agenda
b. the Bush I agenda
c. Bernie Kerik.

If he gets elected America will be handed over to:
a. crazy neocons
b. corporations
c. the New York City Port Authority.

Giuliani’s constant 9-11 talk will make us:
a. tear our hair out
b. stick to listening Air America and Keith Olbermann
c. wish we still had George Bush in office.

Rudy Giuliani has shown his true colors by:
a. Running away from his socially moderate past
b. Claiming to be a 9-11 expert even though he quit the investigatory committee 
c. Saying he was rooting for the Red Sox in the World Series.

If you hate Rudy like I do, you should:
a. make sure to get the vote out for Hillary
b. spread the truth about Rudy
c. cancel that subscription to the New Yorker.

by WonkoKevin

With possibly as little as two months before the first primary vote, the fluid Republican field is beginning to yield the patterns that will define how things split come early 2008.  Mick Huckabee’s third place finish in a recent Iowa poll and second place finish in a Value Voters straw poll gives him legitimate claim to being able to win Iowa (Huckmentum? Remember Joementum?).  Over the period of Saturday and Sunday, Huckabee finished third highest in total Wonkosphere buzz share, the first time he has gotten that high.  His buzz share trend in the past week is predictive of future positive movement in the polls occurring over the next 2-3 weeks.  Below is a graph of his buzz share; note that not only are conservatives (red) buzzing on Huck, so are liberals (blue).  Attention from the other side is a sign of legitimacy, and this is the first time this has happened to Huckabee.

Now check out the tone of his buzz over the last two weeks and see how positive conservatives have been, especially the last two days.

Huckabee buzz tends to go along with Romney buzz and against McCain and Thompson buzz, and this continues to be the case.  Romney’s buzz share continued to be strong (20%) while Thompson and McCain are kinda tankin.  Herein lies the pattern for how the Republican race is going to shake out: Giuliani v. Huckabee and Romney.  More abstractly, I think this signifies the party’s struggle between social conservatives and war-on-terror conservatives (economic conservatives are lined up behind Paul, but don’t seem to have much influence this time around).

Can Giuliani keep the debate focused on terrorism?  Can Huckabee keep the debate focused on social values?  Can Romney convince conservatives that he mixes the best of both of them?

One thing Romney and Giuliani have that Huckabee doesn’t, and that’s cash.  Ain’t no sunshine without no cash. 

by WonkoKevin

Here are the official votes from the Value Voters Straw Poll:

Mitt Romney, 28%
Mike Huckabee, 27%
Ron Paul, 15%
Fred Thompson, 10%
Rudy Giuliani, 2%
John McCain, 2%

I thought this would make an interesting case study of how blogs spin results. Romney won; could you tell from the headlines?

Assessing Huckmentum After Mike Huckabee’s Win at …

MIKE HUCKABEE DOMINATES VALUES VOTER SUMMIT IN WASHINGTON , D.C

A Huckabee Landslide (this is from a liberal blog)

Huckabee Crushes All Comers.

Fred Thompson Making Inroads With “Values Voters”

Values voters’ flock to Thompson

Thompson gaining with values voters?

Giuliani: You have nothing to fear from me

Giuliani Would Ban Gay Marriage

McCain to social conservatives: ‘I won’t con you’

by WonkoKevin

OMG, Stop the Presses!  For the first time in a long time, Rudy Giuliani pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in Wonkosphere buzz share, by a nose.  Most of it is about how he tanked in the Value Voters straw poll (Huckabee and Romney came out lookin good).  I’ll have a more detailed analysis of the Value Voter forum on Monday, but suffice to say that the vetting process is finally getting in gear and the field is still very fluid…

by WonkoKevin

Is Rudy Giuliani following the Clinton-Wonkosphere pattern?  Is Rudy becoming the obsession of liberal bloggers in the same way that conservative bloggers love to talk about Hillary?  Liberal bloggers have given him 40% of the buzz about Republican candidates over the last two weeks.  TPM’s Josh Marshall gives a good sampling of how the Fear Rudy argument is shaping up: “I  know I’ve said before that Romney’s profound and almost incalculable phoniness is a terrifying prospect to behold in a possible president. But the danger of phoniness, aesthetic or otherwise, cannot hold a candle to the truly catastrophic foreign policy Giuliani would likely pursue if he got anywhere near the Oval Office. Watching him campaign it’s pretty clear that the guy has no real sense that posturing and pandering to ethnic paranoia in New York City simply isn’t the same as running a national foreign policy. The people he’s coalescing around himself as his foreign policy advisors are the ones who are going to help him learn as he goes. And they are simply the most dangerous, deranged and deluded folks you can find in American political and foreign policy circles today. It’s really not an exaggeration. Scrape the bottom of the “Global War on Terror” Islamofascism nutbasket and you find they’ve pretty much all signed on as Rudy advisors.”