More thoughts on the Iowa results in a bit. I think today’s Wonkosphere buzz share graph, comprising conservative and liberal blogs posts from 9PM EST Thursday January 3 to 9AM EST Friday January 4, pretty well sums up the post-Iowa spin, numbers-wise.
by WonkoKevin
For months now Hillary Clinton has been the dominant topic in the political blogosphere. In November, she led all Democratic candidates with 40% liberal buzz share in Wonkosphere, and she has never averaged below 30% in any month since June. It hasn’t only been the liberal blogs that have been concentrating on Clinton. Until recently, conservative bloggers have been equally obsessed with Clinton, routinely giving her well over 50% of the attention they give to Democrats. The last four days look very different, however–Clinton’s liberal buzz share has dipped below 30%, and a similar, strong downward trend has occurred in her conservative buzz share. Similarly, Ron Paul’s internet juggernaut has been the talk of the town; in November, Paul led all Republicans with 30% conservative buzz share. Yet he’s been below 20% buzz share for 6 straight days now. What’s going on? These data suggest that, as one might expect, the Wonkosphere is transitioning from a pre-primary to primary phase, and that means all of the old “attentional structure” that has existed is going to become much less significant in light of upcoming voting results.
by WonkoKevin
Joe Biden was only mentioned in 82 liberal blogs yesterday, compared to the 290 liberal blog posts which mentioned Hillary Clinton. Yet Clinton’s overall Wonkosphere liberal buzz share (23%) was not even twice Biden’s (12%). How could Biden’s buzz share be so much relatively higher, per post? It’s because of the way we calculate buzz share, and it demonstrates that Biden is being talked about much more substantively in the posts that do mention him, whereas Clinton is being mentioned (relatively) more in passing. The same perspective is also positive to Romney, Thompson, Edwards, and Obama, and negative to Giuliani and Paul.
by WonkoKevin
In previous posts we’ve discussed how changes in Wonkosphere buzz share are predictive of changes in national poll numbers 2-3 weeks hence. With Iowa less than one week away, however, a 2-3 week-ahead prediction doesn’t do much good. And because of the impending January 3 date, everything is in hyperspeed now. So we need to look for other clues in the data. What we find is that the buzz share numbers in the conservative blogosphere largely mimic the current national polling numbers, while the buzz share numbers in the liberal blogosphere largely mimic the current poll numbers coming out of New Hampshire. (more…)
by WonkoKevin
Back to the tea leaves, this time to predict the Republican Iowa caucus, now less than 12 days away. Most of our scenarios have Mike Huckabee winning; that would be a tough one to bet against now. Ditto, Mitt Romney in second. Both polling and Wonkosphere data seem to support this 1-2 finish. How much by, and who comes in third and fourth and last is much more difficult to predict. (more…)
by WonkoKevin
Rudy Giuliani’s campaign took yet another turn to the absurd with Christmas Card #2. Following up on Mike Huckabee’s much maligned but probably successful Christmas ad, Giuliani came out with a similar ad today… also in front of a Christmas tree, also in a red sweater… From the same campaign that gave us the brilliant response to the MoveOn.org “General Betray Us” ad, we get a knock-off response like this? Geez, did he have to wear a red sweater? (It’s not even as nice as Huckabee’s.)
OK–let’s assume that both campaigns just happened to be making the same commercial at the same time, and Huck beat Rudy to the finish line by 2 days. Why did the ad writers have to have Rudy saying he was going to buy fruitcakes for Christmas? Are you kidding me? Does the campaign forget how its opponents like to roll out pics of Rudy in drag? The only hypothesis I can come up with is they thought this would somehow appeal to aged Floridians or something. I didn’t think the campaign could screw up more than last week when they scheduled Rudy’s big “vision” speech in Florida, on a Saturday. But they did.
Wonkosphere.com reports that Mike Huckabee and John Edwards were the most likable presidential candidates amongst their constituents in the month of November, followed closely by Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Barack Obama, and Chris Dodd. Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were the two leading candidates who had the most negative buzz from conservative and liberal bloggers, respectively.
by WonkoKevin
Mike Huckabee led Hillary Clinton in Wonkosphere buzz share 28% to 20% over the last 24 hours, thanks in large part to attention by liberal bloggers. Huckabee pulled down almost 60% buzz share amongst liberals on Saturday, and also dominated the conservative blogosphere with 40% buzz share.
by WonkoKevin
Rudy Giuliani? Giuliani? Ah… sorry, that name doesn’t ring a bell. Fred Thompson, yeah, saw him last night on a TV re-run. John McCain? He’s still senator from Arizona, right?
Mike Huckabee (35%) and Mitt Romney (40%) dominated the conservative Wonkosphere yesterday. Ron Paul was down to 13%, and Giuliani (8%) and Thompson (8%) hobbled to the finish line. Oh, you think it’s good for Giuliani that all the attention–most of it negative–is being focused on Huck? WRONG! We’ve had one Willy Horton and will not have another, so Huck’s opponents better be working on something better than that against Mr. Clean. MyDD is going so far as to say it’s Huckabee’s race to lose.
Huckabee and Romney even beat Hillary Clinton for buzz share over the last 24 hours. Hillary in third place in buzz share? The sky is falling later today too.
Romney’s speech, both highly lauded and panned, will do nada in my opinion. Mainstream media kind of forced him to make it. The speech will do nothing to convert the religious right to shift from Huckabee to Romney, and it will do nothing to quell those who are concerned about Mormonism. He said exactly what everyone expected him to, which means neither a win nor a loss.
by WonkoKevin
In new polls by Rasmussen, Barack Obama ties Rudy Giuliani and John McCain in face-face competition, while he leads Fred Thompson by 7% and Mitt Romney by 9% when paired with them.
With the first caucuses and primaries of Election 2008 only weeks away, a new Rasmussen Reports survey of potential general-election bouts shows Senator Barack Obama (D) and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) neck-and-neck, with Obama barely ahead 43% to 41%. In the same poll, Obama moderately leads former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson 48% to 41%.
Obama has had a single-digit lead over Giuliani in seven out of nine Rasmussen Reports election polls conducted since July (see history). The contest seems to have grown even tighter in recent polling. In late October, Giuliani led by two points but he trailed by two in mid-November.
The Obama-Thompson match-up has been a little more erratic and less competitive. A November 13 election poll showed Obama with a five-point lead over Thompson, similar to his current seven-point advantage.
A separate survey shows Obama tied with Arizona Senator John McCain. But, that survey also shows the Illinois Senator enjoying a nine-point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
