by WonkoKevin

So who had a good week in Wonkosphere? I looked at buzz share changes from the week of December 1-7 to the week of December 8-14. Winners were Chris Dodd (because of his threatening to filibuster the FISA bill), Mike Huckabee, Barack Obama (no surprises), and hold your breathe, Fred Thompson. Yep, with a couple of evangelical endorsements, Thompson’s buzz share shot up to a more respectful 10% last week; we’ll see if it lasts. John Edwards and John McCain both lost buzz share, not a good indicator of positive movement. This upcoming week is really the start of the phase were television advertising starts coming into play big time, so look for a lot of buzz from Clinton, Obama and Romney, and we’ll see how much $$ Huck has been able to raise in the last month.

Wonkosphere.com reports that Mike Huckabee and John Edwards were the most likable presidential candidates amongst their constituents in the month of November, followed closely by Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Barack Obama, and Chris Dodd. Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were the two leading candidates who had the most negative buzz from conservative and liberal bloggers, respectively.

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by WonkoKevin

Having decided that New Hampshire was a losing proposition, Fred Thompson’s campaign announced today that it would be pulling out of NH and concentrating solely on Iowa. (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Rudy Giuliani?  Giuliani?  Ah… sorry, that name doesn’t ring a bell.  Fred Thompson, yeah, saw him last night on a TV re-run.  John McCain?  He’s still senator from Arizona, right?

Mike Huckabee (35%) and Mitt Romney (40%) dominated the conservative Wonkosphere yesterday.  Ron Paul was down to 13%, and Giuliani (8%) and Thompson (8%) hobbled to the finish line.  Oh, you think it’s good for Giuliani that all the attention–most of it negative–is being focused on Huck?  WRONG!  We’ve had one Willy Horton and will not have another, so Huck’s opponents better be working on something better than that against Mr. Clean.  MyDD is going so far as to say it’s Huckabee’s race to lose.

Huckabee and Romney even beat Hillary Clinton for buzz share over the last 24 hours.  Hillary in third place in buzz share?  The sky is falling later today too.

Romney’s speech, both highly lauded and panned, will do nada in my opinion.  Mainstream media kind of forced him to make it.  The speech will do nothing to convert the religious right to shift from Huckabee to Romney, and it will do nothing to quell those who are concerned about Mormonism.  He said exactly what everyone expected him to, which means neither a win nor a loss.

by WonkoKevin

As we discussed yesterday, amongst critics there was no clear-cut winner in this week’s Republican YouTube Presidential Debate.   Wonkosphere buzz share numbers however can shed some light on who won and who lost.

The story line is: Fred Thompson (-5%) and Ron Paul (-4%) lost, by a lot; and everyone else gained a bit, +2-3%, essentially coming out in a tie.  Thompson is on a 5-day slide, going from a respectable 15% buzz share amongst conservative bloggers 6 days ago to an on-the-borderline-of-being-ignored 6%.

Changes in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers between Tuesday and Thursday:

Rudy Giuliani, +2%

Mike Huckabee, +3%

John McCain, +2%

Ron Paul, -4%

Mitt Romney, +3%

Fred Thompson, -5% 

Fred Thompson at home with the family — birthday present time!

Picture by Fred D. Thompson, all rights reserved.

by WonkoKevin

Fred Thompson got a nice Meet The Press bounce, going up 10 points in Wonkosphere buzz share amongst conservative bloggers.  Thompson’s 20% buzz share Monday and Tuesday is the best he’s done in several weeks.  While some of the buzz was about the resignation of a Thompson aide due to a drug-related past, much of it revolved around Thompson’s comments during his interview that he believed that abortion and gay marriage were state-level issues: Fred is a federalist, and it seems to be playing well.  Mike Huckabee was quick to pounce on Thompson’s lack of support for the “value-voter”; will it work?   

Meanwhile, some voter comments in SC, a state essential to a Thompson nomination, indicate Fred’s got some work to do: ” ‘I don’t know much about the man. He was a TV star and all that, and I’m sure he’s a decent man. But I’ve not heard him talk here. He hasn’t looked me in the eyes,’ said Jim Clark, 64, a retired insurance agent and Vietnam veteran in Irmo, S.C.  Upstate in Simpsonville, Jim Schroder, 42, a project manager, said he had all but ruled out Thompson. ‘I don’t know enough about him. I know he was an actor on TV and a senator. There was a lot of hype on him. But the question is does he want it enough?’  “

by WonkoKevin

So who won the Fox news debate on Sunday?  Ron Paul came out on top of the post-debate straw poll, while other buzz seems to give the debate win to either Giuliani (any non-loss is a win), Thompson (more comfortable than in the first debate), or McCain (best line of the night, “I was tied up during Woodstock”).  Most think Huckabee did well and Romney not so well, and there’s beginning to be active dissing of Hunter and Tancredo.

Personally, I think McCain won, which would give him 3 wins in the last 4 debates.  When he’s “on” he looks the most presidential.  Can he just keep debating?  The fact is that McCain, in his own way, contrasts as much with the other candidates as Ron Paul does, at least during these debates.  I thought the question “How would you beat Hillary?” was interesting in as much as none of them answered it.

Who got the best Wonkosphere buzz share bump?  All of the candidates lost a point or two, and McCain gained+7, moving from 6% to 13%. 

A sample of Fred Thompson’s movies:

Photo by Mike Licht, all rights reserved.

by WonkoKevin

By all comparisons, Fred Thompson is phoning this one in.  Here’s a description of the recent Florida Republican Party annual convention:

“Rudolph W. Giuliani, the first to speak before more than 1,000 Republicans here Saturday night for their annual party convention, worked the crowd into a near frenzy as he lashed out at the specter of a President Hillary Clinton.

Senator John McCain, who spoke next, held the audience rapt as he described the struggle in Iraq, as well as his own experience with war and suffering, in detail and with evident emotion.

Mitt Romney, who focused on the importance of family, brought his wife, Ann, and son, Tagg, on stage: real live family members to show he is a real live family man.

When it came time for Fred D. Thompson, the crowd was primed, having listened to his rivals deliver speeches, lasting about 20 minutes each, that the candidates each obviously thought played to their strengths.

Mr. Thompson walked slowly onto the stage, kissed his wife, Jeri, on the cheek, made a joke or two, claimed to be a “consistent conservative” — and said good night. He spoke for four minutes.

“I was really kind of shocked,” said Linda Hoffman, 47, who wore stickers for all the candidates on her blazer, reflecting her indecision. “We were all hoping he would say something we could get behind, but there was nothing.”

Maybe we (the pundits) are all wrong and Thompson is playing his hand perfectly.  He continues to hold ground in polls (although at some point they gotta move up again).  He’s got the money, and he continues to be the person to beat in the Midwest and South.  If Thompson ends up winning, pundits will have to rewrite their rules on what works and what doesn’t.  If Thompson loses, pundits can role out that tired phrase: showing up is 90% of the game.