by WonkoSteve
So who lost the Demo debate last night? Some say it was CNN. The Wonkosphere thinks they morphed it into a football game, and snuck extra players onto the field.
by WonkoKevin
Barack Obama might have come out of Tuesday’s debate with a pundit-proclaimed minor victory, but the Wonkosphere as a whole didn’t seem to see it that way. Obama, who overtook Hillary Clinton for buzz share amongst liberal bloggers on Monday (first time in a long time), plunged 17 percentage points between Tuesday and Wednesday. John Edwards, Clinton, and Joe Biden came out with fairly significant buzz share increases. Dennis Kucinich lost a point, even with the UFO (and impeachment) remarks. Here’s a summary of who went up and down yesterday, post debate:
Edwards +7
Clinton +5
Biden +5
Dodd +1
Kucinich -1
Richardson -3
Obama -17
Watching the debate, I thought Clinton was playing shutout as a goaltender and then flubbed it with seconds to go. The “license driver” exchange then in turn caused MSM and pundits to recast the entire debate as one of Clinton fending off questions, turning a win into a loss. I would be surprised if this hurt her in upcoming IA or NH polls, but it certainly is a messy topic in the general election. OTOH, Edwards’ effectiveness on Tuesday will help him slow down some of the negative momentum he’s had over the last few weeks. Obama? He was thrown a softball down the middle of the plate with the first question on Tuesday, and he laid down a sacrifice bunt. Gotta go for the homer dude!
by WonkoKevin
So who won the Fox news debate on Sunday? Ron Paul came out on top of the post-debate straw poll, while other buzz seems to give the debate win to either Giuliani (any non-loss is a win), Thompson (more comfortable than in the first debate), or McCain (best line of the night, “I was tied up during Woodstock”). Most think Huckabee did well and Romney not so well, and there’s beginning to be active dissing of Hunter and Tancredo.
Personally, I think McCain won, which would give him 3 wins in the last 4 debates. When he’s “on” he looks the most presidential. Can he just keep debating? The fact is that McCain, in his own way, contrasts as much with the other candidates as Ron Paul does, at least during these debates. I thought the question “How would you beat Hillary?” was interesting in as much as none of them answered it.
Who got the best Wonkosphere buzz share bump? All of the candidates lost a point or two, and McCain gained+7, moving from 6% to 13%.
by WonkoKevin
As I’ve blogged about before, Wonkosphere buzz share for Fred Thompson and John McCain is negatively correlated with buzz share for Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. When Fred and John go up, Mike and Mitt go down, and visa versa. So, Thompson’s win (or tie) in the Dearborn debate speak negatively for Huckabee and Romney. Craig Crawford is saying similar: “Thompson brought energy and gravitas to his first face-off against the Republican field, avoiding gaffes and showing adequate command of the issues. That could leave Huckabee with less running room to corral conservatives who had begun to lose confidence in Thompson as a possible champion to overcome social moderates in the top tier of GOP contenders.” Thompson needs to follow up his positive buzz with some attention grabber. Sunday morning talk show time? Or a big policy announcement? I’d like to hear more about his plan to abolish the IRS…
by WonkoKevin
Fred Thompson made his debut in the Michigan debate last night and came out a winner, according to both general consensus and Wonkosphere buzz share. Conservative bloggers will be chomping on the Chris Matthews “slapdown” for a couple of weeks, and Thompson had the biggest post-debate bump in buzz share, at +4%. Rudy Giuliani got a +3% bump in buzz share, followed by Mitt Romney (+2%) and Tom Tancredo (+2%). The big loser was Ron Paul, whose buzz share plunged -14%. Apparently Paul supporters went stealth last night, as they did not find much to cheer about last night.
by WonkoKevin
Ron Paul led all Republicans in Wonkosphere buzz share one day following Tavis Smiley’s PBS All American Presidential Forums. Paul’s buzz share amongst conservative bloggers increased from 14% to 21%, beating out Rudy Giuliani who fell below 20% buzz share for the first time in ten days. The forum was notable for its empty podia–the front runners were not there, which has peeved off more than a few conservatives. Bloggers tended to concede the debate to either Paul or Mike Huckabee, who got a 2% increase in buzz share from the event. Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, and Alan Keyes also has buzz share increases in the 2-3% range… The biggest “loser” of the event? Mitt Romney. Romney’s buzz share plummeted from 21% to 11%… For more discussion, Richard Rhodes has provided a nice analysis of the debate’s content.
by WonkoKevin
John Edwards had the biggest increase in Wonkopshere buzz share the day following the Democratic debate in New Hampshire. Edwards increased buzz share from 20% to 25% amongst liberal bloggers, and also had the biggest increase in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers. Other debate benefitters were Gravel and Kucinich, whose buzz shares increased by 2 percentage points each. Dodd, Obama, and Richardson each loss a percentage point, and Clinton lost 4 percentage points. Buzz on Biden went the most quiet, going down 8 percentage points. Even though he had a good debate, it followed a day of intense buzz due to the passing of his Iraq soft-partition bill. Edwards also got a lot of buzz amongst the MTV and MySpace audiences last night, being the first candidate to participate in a 1-hour forum hosted by MTV and MySpace. Edwards relished the format and wowed them, according to the feedback from the MySpace audience.
by WonkoKevin
Last night’s debate at Dartmouth University in New Hampshire (full transcript here) is being reported by MSM as a fight between Hillary Clinton and the other contenders. While that dynamic was obvious, I thought the debate was notable for the multiple lines of fracture that emerged, as candidates vied to differentiate themselves from both Clinton and each other. Since it’s obvious that Clinton will be opposed seriously by someone, it is these secondary fractures which may be more telling and important.
by WonkoSteve
Today’s Arizona Republic carried a front-page article about John McCain and his debate performance last week. According to the article he “wowed critics with a powerful performance. …Suddenly, the Arizona Republican is basking in some momentum for the first time in a long time.” For the first time in two months, to be exact, when our archival data for early July show him with a 60% buzz share. This made me wonder: Did McCain’s debate performance give him any momentum in the Wonkosphere?
