The third and final presidential debate had no significant impact on Wonkosphere buzz share. Obama’s lead over McCain has held steady over the past 10+ days, and if the debate were to have had any impact on public polls (no visible effect yet either), I would have expected a bump for McCain in the blogs. Obama has 57% buzz share the 24 hours post debate while McCain is at 42%. Bob Barr and Ralph Nader continue to be below 1%.
Archive for the ‘Debates’ Category
Barack Obama maintains a buzz share lead in Wonkosphere, topping John McCain 60 to 40 percent yesterday and 55 to 45 over the last 24 hours. The second debate did not change Obama’s buzz share lead, which has held at 60 percent for 4 days now. The tone of the discourse in the blogosphere has been harsh–both conservative and liberal bloggers are using rather negative language. McCain continues to throw more “mud”, according to the MudMeter(tm), although Obama has stepped up mentions of McCain significantly in the last 3 weeks.
Throughout the campaign season John McCain’s buzz share in Wonkosphere shot up after almost every debate as the format gave him an opportunity to shine. Now, McCain is still winning debates, even when he isn’t a participant! Most of the pundits agree that the de facto winner of last night’s Clinton-Obama debate was McCain, as Clinton turned in a better performance, continuing the comeback narrative that will play out (one way or another) in PA, NC, and IN. Taylor Marsh and The Moderate Voice have great summaries of blog and MSM opinion on the debate. I’ll reproduce here what I thought were the most representative and interesting posts. (more…)
Yesterday’s buzz share numbers in Wonkosphere only partially reflect the post-debate buzz bump that some of the Republican candidates will get, but the early returns show a 4% increase in conservative buzz share for McCain, +2% for Romney, +1% for Giuliani, and -3% for Huckabee. Overall conservative sentiment also favored McCain and Romney (about the same), with Giuliani and Huckabee being talked about more negatively.
Here’s a summary of what’s happening in Wonkosphere… ObaMo increases; his buzz share amongst liberal bloggers continued what is now a six-day upwards trend, and he is over the 40% line. Clinton’s buzz share remained constant but the tone of discourse about her was significantly lower than the average. Edwards continued to be down, below the 20% level; he seems to have lost about 1/5th of his buzz since Iowa. For the Republicans, John McCain continues a slow but steady climb in buzz share, up for the 5th straight day and now over the critical 20% level. Huckabee appears to have gotten no buzz share bounce from the Iowa win, and Mitt Romney’s tone from conservatives was below average for the 10th straight day. Fred Thompson has not moved, but I do note that many of the most influential conservative blogs were declaring him the winner in last night’s debate.
As we discussed yesterday, amongst critics there was no clear-cut winner in this week’s Republican YouTube Presidential Debate. Wonkosphere buzz share numbers however can shed some light on who won and who lost.
The story line is: Fred Thompson (-5%) and Ron Paul (-4%) lost, by a lot; and everyone else gained a bit, +2-3%, essentially coming out in a tie. Thompson is on a 5-day slide, going from a respectable 15% buzz share amongst conservative bloggers 6 days ago to an on-the-borderline-of-being-ignored 6%.
Changes in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers between Tuesday and Thursday:
Rudy Giuliani, +2%
Mike Huckabee, +3%
John McCain, +2%
Ron Paul, -4%
Mitt Romney, +3%
Fred Thompson, -5%
There was no clear-cut winner in last night’s Republican YouTube Presidential Debate. Chuck Todd at MSNBC picked Huckabee as the winner; Jamal Simmons at CNN gave it to McCain, while Bill Bennett thought Romney was “strong, in command, and articulate.” Flopping Aces liked Fred Thompson’s answers, and the TV commentators after the debate seemed to favor Giuliani. So what does Wonkosphere buzz share have to say?
We’ll have to wait until tomorrow morning to see what impact the debate had on buzz share today, but if we look at changes in yesterday’s buzz share, we can measure change pre-debate and immediate post-debate. The numbers point to a Huckabee and Romney win, with the others all losing a bit of ground.
Changes in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers between Tuesday and Wednesday:
Rudy Giuliani, -2%
Mike Huckabee, +5%
John McCain, -2%
Ron Paul, -5%
Mitt Romney, +6%
Fred Thompson, -3%
Buzz share results from Wonkosphere two days after the Democratic debate point strikingly to a Hillary Clinton win and a Barack Obama loss. Obama has lost 10% buzz share amongst liberal bloggers since two days ago, while Clinton has gained 6%. All of the other candidates were a wash, further demonstrating what the debate was all about.
Changes in buzz share amongst liberal bloggers, two days post-debate:
Joe Biden, +1%
Hillary Clinton, +6%
Chris Dodd, no change
John Edwards, -1%
Dennis Kucinich, +1%
Barack Obama, -10%
Bill Richardson, -2%
Today the Wonkosphere is still atwitter about Thursday’s CNN demo debate. Two ridiculous themes IMHO are the softball question that one student asked Hillary, and why there were so many Clinton supporters in the crowd.
Buzz share results from Wonkosphere confirm word on the street: while Hillary Clinton came out pretty well, the news was how relatively poorly John Edwards and Barack Obama did. Obama loss 8% buzz share amongst liberal bloggers after the debate, the biggest drop. This is a disturbing trend for Obama; even in the last debate where critics lauded his performance, hs buzz share dropped the following days. Compare that to the 5-7 days of positive buzz share bump that John McCain has been getting post-debates, and it shows a fundamental weakness in Obama’s debating skills. Meanwhile, Edwards only lost 2% buzz share after the debate, but that is with an asterisk: he’s lost 15% buzz share over the last 3 days, going from 25% to 10%. As usual, the secondary candidates got positive buzz share bumps, but nothing large enough to note.
Changes in buzz share amongst liberal bloggers, post debate:
Joe Biden, +4%
Hillary Clinton, -4% (note: from 50% to 46%)
Chris Dodd, +2%
John Edwards, -2% (note: -15% over last three days)
Dennis Kucinich, +2%
Barack Obama, -8%
Bill Richardson, +3%