by WonkoKevin

Throughout the campaign season John McCain’s buzz share in Wonkosphere shot up after almost every debate as the format gave him an opportunity to shine.  Now, McCain is still winning debates, even when he isn’t a participant!  Most of the pundits agree that the de facto winner of last night’s Clinton-Obama debate was McCain, as Clinton turned in a better performance, continuing the comeback narrative that will play out (one way or another) in PA, NC, and IN.   Taylor Marsh and The Moderate Voice have great summaries of blog and MSM opinion on the debate.  I’ll reproduce here what I thought were the most representative and interesting posts. (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Yesterday’s buzz share numbers in Wonkosphere only partially reflect the post-debate buzz bump that some of the Republican candidates will get, but the early returns show a 4% increase in conservative buzz share for McCain, +2% for Romney, +1% for Giuliani, and -3% for Huckabee.  Overall conservative sentiment also favored McCain and Romney (about the same), with Giuliani and Huckabee being talked about more negatively. 

by WonkoKevin

Here’s a summary of what’s happening in Wonkosphere… ObaMo increases; his buzz share amongst liberal bloggers continued what is now a six-day upwards trend, and he is over the 40% line. Clinton’s buzz share remained constant but the tone of discourse about her was significantly lower than the average. Edwards continued to be down, below the 20% level; he seems to have lost about 1/5th of his buzz since Iowa. For the Republicans, John McCain continues a slow but steady climb in buzz share, up for the 5th straight day and now over the critical 20% level. Huckabee appears to have gotten no buzz share bounce from the Iowa win, and Mitt Romney’s tone from conservatives was below average for the 10th straight day. Fred Thompson has not moved, but I do note that many of the most influential conservative blogs were declaring him the winner in last night’s debate.

by WonkoKevin

As we discussed yesterday, amongst critics there was no clear-cut winner in this week’s Republican YouTube Presidential Debate.   Wonkosphere buzz share numbers however can shed some light on who won and who lost.

The story line is: Fred Thompson (-5%) and Ron Paul (-4%) lost, by a lot; and everyone else gained a bit, +2-3%, essentially coming out in a tie.  Thompson is on a 5-day slide, going from a respectable 15% buzz share amongst conservative bloggers 6 days ago to an on-the-borderline-of-being-ignored 6%.

Changes in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers between Tuesday and Thursday:

Rudy Giuliani, +2%

Mike Huckabee, +3%

John McCain, +2%

Ron Paul, -4%

Mitt Romney, +3%

Fred Thompson, -5% 

by WonkoKevin

There was no clear-cut winner in last night’s Republican YouTube Presidential Debate.  Chuck Todd at MSNBC picked Huckabee as the winner;  Jamal Simmons at CNN gave it to McCain, while Bill Bennett thought Romney was “strong, in command, and articulate.”  Flopping Aces liked Fred Thompson’s answers, and the TV commentators after the debate seemed to favor Giuliani.   So what does Wonkosphere buzz share have to say?

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow morning to see what impact the debate had on buzz share today, but if we look at changes in yesterday’s buzz share, we can measure change pre-debate and immediate post-debate.  The numbers point to a Huckabee and Romney win, with the others all losing a bit of ground.

Changes in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers between Tuesday and Wednesday:

Rudy Giuliani, -2%

Mike Huckabee, +5%

John McCain, -2%

Ron Paul, -5%

Mitt Romney, +6%

Fred Thompson, -3% 

by WonkoKevin

Buzz share results from Wonkosphere two days after the Democratic debate point strikingly to a Hillary Clinton win and a Barack Obama loss.  Obama has lost 10% buzz share amongst liberal bloggers since two days ago, while Clinton has gained 6%.  All of the other candidates were a wash, further demonstrating what the debate was all about.

Changes in buzz share amongst liberal bloggers, two days post-debate:

Joe Biden, +1%

Hillary Clinton, +6% 

Chris Dodd, no change

John Edwards, -1%

Dennis Kucinich, +1%

Barack Obama, -10%

Bill Richardson, -2%

by WonkoSteve

Today the Wonkosphere is still atwitter about Thursday’s CNN demo debate. Two ridiculous themes IMHO are the softball question that one student asked Hillary, and why there were so many Clinton supporters in the crowd.

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by WonkoKevin

Buzz share results from Wonkosphere confirm word on the street: while Hillary Clinton came out pretty well, the news was how relatively poorly John Edwards and Barack Obama did.  Obama loss 8% buzz share amongst liberal bloggers after the debate, the biggest drop.  This is a disturbing trend for Obama; even in the last debate where critics lauded his performance, hs buzz share dropped the following days.  Compare that to the 5-7 days of positive buzz share bump that John McCain has been getting post-debates, and it shows a fundamental weakness in Obama’s debating skills.  Meanwhile, Edwards only lost 2% buzz share after the debate, but that is with an asterisk: he’s lost 15% buzz share over the last 3 days, going from 25% to 10%.  As usual, the secondary candidates got positive buzz share bumps, but nothing large enough to note.

Changes in buzz share amongst liberal bloggers, post debate:

Joe Biden, +4%

Hillary Clinton, -4%  (note: from 50% to 46%)

Chris Dodd, +2%

John Edwards, -2% (note: -15% over last three days)

Dennis Kucinich, +2%

Barack Obama, -8%

Bill Richardson, +3%

by WonkoSteve

So who lost the Demo debate last night? Some say it was CNN. The Wonkosphere thinks they morphed it into a football game, and snuck extra players onto the field.

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by WonkoKevin

Barack Obama might have come out of Tuesday’s debate with a pundit-proclaimed minor victory, but the Wonkosphere as a whole didn’t seem to see it that way.  Obama, who overtook Hillary Clinton for buzz share amongst liberal bloggers on Monday (first time in a long time), plunged 17 percentage points between Tuesday and Wednesday.  John Edwards, Clinton, and Joe Biden came out with fairly significant buzz share increases.  Dennis Kucinich lost a point, even with the UFO (and impeachment) remarks.  Here’s a summary of who went up and down yesterday, post debate:

Edwards +7

Clinton +5

Biden +5

Dodd +1

Kucinich -1

Richardson -3

Obama -17

Watching the debate, I thought Clinton was playing shutout as a goaltender and then flubbed it with seconds to go.  The “license driver” exchange then in turn caused MSM and pundits to recast the entire debate as one of Clinton fending off questions, turning a win into a loss.  I would be surprised if this hurt her in upcoming IA or NH polls, but it certainly is a messy topic in the general election.  OTOH, Edwards’ effectiveness on Tuesday will help him slow down some of the negative momentum he’s had over the last few weeks.  Obama?  He was thrown a softball down the middle of the plate with the first question on Tuesday, and he laid down a sacrifice bunt.  Gotta go for the homer dude!