by WonkoKevin

In every disaster movie we see individuals caught in a deathly struggle. Sometimes the ones who die are the ones who are completely ineffectual or selfish; but sometimes the ones who die are just a victim of bad luck, bad timing. Obamania has crashed over the bridge of the American political ship. Would it really have mattered much whether Hillary Clinton had continued to run a “perfect” campaign? As Clinton’s nomination hopes fade, there is no shortage of explanations why. The SC debacle. The driver’s license debate flub. Personality. Etc. To me an equally relevant question is: Would it have mattered?

My short answer is: yes, she was out-candidated. Her standing in the polls early on was largely driven by name recognition, and high favorables amongst Democrats. In Iowa, where people were paying the most attention, they never made Clinton inevitable. Clinton’s subsequent wins in NH, CA, MA, and NY showed she still had a strong base and could compete, but I think the loss in SC (and to Ted Kennedy) was the turning point because it gave Obama presidential confidence. You can see the qualitative difference in the way he talks and carries himself since that victory. So Hillary allowed Obamania to emerge from SC. Given its emergence, I don’t think it makes any difference what she has done or will do.

by WonkoKevin

Is there any U.S. politician besides a Clinton that could still be considered “alive” after losses of 23, 29, and 17 points? The news for Clinton is distinctly funereal in its nature this morning. Many different survival scenarios are posited, but the delegate mathematics suggest the nomination is pretty well wrapped up for Obama. You want to know how over it is? The betting odds for Obama to win the presidency are now better than even, while McCain is 2:1 and Clinton is 6:1.

One emerging pattern of interest is how much the state-level polls are underestimating Obama strength, or perhaps turnout. I went through all the polls done a week before the Virginia, Maryland, and Wisconsin primaries, and the conclusion is that if you want the best prediction, add +5 to Obama’s percentage and subtract 5 from Clinton’s. In Wisconsin, 5 polls had Obama by +5.5%, and he won by +17%. In Maryland, 6 polls had him up +16%, and he won by +23%. In Virginia, 7 polls had him up +18%, and he won by +29%. SurveyUSA has Clinton at +5% in Texas and +9% in Ohio. Assuming the primaries were tomorrow, we might be better to predict an Obama win of +5% in Texas–and, you knew it was coming!–a squeeker in Ohio.

by WonkoKevin

Mark the calendar, February 11, 2008, five days ago. That’s the day when Barack Obama’s conservative buzz share went over 50% for the first time, and it signifies the end of a campaign-long run “in the bullseye” for Clinton. Clinton has been the obsession of conservative bloggers throughout the campaign; in November, 1/2 of all conservative posts mentioned Clinton. Just as John McCain has made a noticeable shift to framing Obama as the likely winner, so too has the conservative blogosphere. It’s also worth noting the tone, or sentiment, of conservative posts about Obama has gone about 15% more negative in the past week. If Obama holds serve in Wisconsin, expect the trend to accelerate… Also today–check out Hot Air’s piece on the Two Mavericks.

by WonkoKevin

Wonkosphere buzz share now stands roughly equivalent to the delegate share that each of the candidates have:

Obama 52% (pledged) delegates, 53% (liberal) buzz share

Clinton 48% delegates, 47% buzz share

McCain 73% delegates, 72% (conservative) buzz share

Huckabee 18% delegates, 15% buzz share

Paul 1% delegates, 9% buzz share

This is really quite an interesting development for Politics 2.0. It suggests that the political blogosphere as a collective is allocating attention in a contest-by-contest manner. Before the primaries began, the blogosphere led public opinion by two or three weeks; now the blogosphere is tightly coupled to the one thing that now matters most: the delegate count. Pat yourself on the back blogosphere, you’re rational, adaptive, efficient, and self-organizing–a true smart mob!

by WonkoKevin

Hillary Clinton’s latest commercial features a person falling out of a plane in a free fall as the announcer talks about the state of the economy.  At the last minute, the Clinton-as-parachute comes to the rescue.  (Is a parachute a good metaphor for leadership?  This frame is a really bad marketing choice…)  One can’t help but draw parallels to the state of the Clinton campaign itself, with a huge loss in Maine, where she expected to win or be close, and the replacement of her campaign manager, Patty Doyle.  Let’s take a look at some good commentary. (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Barack Obama won decisively yesterday in Washington, Nebraska, and Loiusiana, inching close to Clinton in total delegates at around 1100 (this includes estimates of super-delegate preferences).  Clinton supporters have stated that they don’t expect to do very well in the upcoming contests in Virginia, D.C., Maryland, Wisconsin, and Hawaii.  A string of victories, perhaps really big victories, by Obama could create the kind of momentum Obama needs to win, or stay close, in the March 4 contests of Ohio and Texas.  This means that Clinton has perhaps only one chance to stop a February sweep–the Maine caucus today. (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Now that we have a reduced field, what do the odds-makers say about who will win president?

John McCain, just under 2:1.

Barack Obama, just under 2:1.  The various indeces have McCain barely ahead of Obama six times, Obama once, and tied six times.

Hillary Clinton, about 2.5: 1.

Mike Huckabee, about 66:1.

by WonkoKevin

I didn’t know what to be more surprised about this morning: (a) I was able to go to bed almost fully informed of the outcomes by 10:30PM, (b) Mike Huckabee has been annointed the challenger now in a two-person race, or (c) the Phoenix Suns are considering trading Shawn Marion for Shaq.   On the Democratic side, Chuck Todd at MSNBC predicted a 4-delegate win for Obama–out of over 1600 delegates!  You couldn’t get much more of a tie than that.  Of course, people hate ties, so there’s spin that Obama didn’t get the knock-out punch expected competing with spin the Clinton lost her last chance to put Obama away.  Moving forward, Reid Wilson at RCP sees advantage-Obama, as Obama appears poised to win most of the states between now and March 4, and figures the momentum will carry him to wins in Texas and Ohio.  Thomas Edsall at RCP cites others though that see Obama’s difficulty with Hispanic voters being a big barrier to winning in those two states.  People are already looking to Indiana, North Carolina, and Kentucky in May.  Remember, every Dem in the House is a super-delegate, so this race literally may be decided by the House of Representatives.

On the Republican side, a nice but not slam-dunk victory for McCain.  Romney may well drop out of the race today, and it’s hard to do the math that brings Huckabee to victory.  The question remains how long Romney and Huckabee will stay in, and perhaps the affiliated question, why.  The largest Wonkosphere-related lesson to learn from Tsunami Tuesday is that sometimes the blogosphere can get it right, and sometimes they get it wrong.  Conservative bloggers picked up on Huckabee earlier than anyone else and fell in love with his personality; as he picked up popularity in the polls, conservative bloggers turned negative on his policies.  Even with a win in Iowa, Huckabee’s buzz share began to decline in early January.  Over the past month his buzz share has plummeted down to the 5% range, almost trivial.  And yet, the MSM spin on last night is that Huck’s southern victories catapult him ahead of Romney.  Conservative bloggers missed it–why?  Three possible answers, all are probably a bit true.  First, the “opinion leading” conservative blogs aren’t connected to and aren’t paying attention to the religious right AND the South, which is being taken for granted.  Second, the South for whatever reason is under-represented in the blogosphere.  We know in general that Internet usage across the world is inversely proportional to the outside temperature… are there fewer bloggers in the more temperate South?  Third, Huckabee’s viral support is face-face ”word of mouth” and not blog-blog word of mouth.  Early buzz share data today indicates that conservative bloggers still aren’t paying much attention to Huck. 

by WonkoKevin

I have been so psyched for this day for so long.  Today–Tsunami Tuesday–marks the 6-month anniversary of WonkoBlog, and what a fitting day to celebrate!  As a political junkie, I love the horserace, and I am cognizant enough to know that we may be watching modern-day political history.  It’s another Christmas morning, in February. (more…)

by WonkoKevin

According to the latest numbers from Zogby, John McCain is pulling away from Mitt Romney and Barack Obama has pulled ahead in three of the four key states:

NJ–McCain 52, Romney 26; Clinton 43, Obama 43

NY–McCain 53, Romney 19

GA–Obama 48, Clinton 31

Missouri-McCain 35, Huckabee 27, Romney 24; Obama 47, Clinton 42

CA–Romney 40, McCain 32; Obama 46, Clinton 40