by WonkoKevin

It’s always so easy to tell when my students plaguerize.  All I need to do is take a full sentence from their text and stick it into Google and see what comes up.  Today’s plaguerized text of the day is spreading the rumor that Joe Biden will step down and Hillary Clinton will step in as VP.  Here’s the anonymous email being passed around (sometimes it’s appropriately cited and sometimes it’s simply portrayed as though written by the blogger on the site):

Let me share some info with you that I have gotten from excellent sources within the DNC:  On or about October 5th, Biden will excuse himself from the ticket, citing health problems, and he will be replaced by Hillary. This is timed to occur after the VP debate on 10/2. There have been talks all weekend about how to proceed with this info. generally, the feeling is that we should all go ahead and get it out there to as many blog sites and personal email lists as is possible. I have already seen a few short blurbs about this - the “health problem” cited in those articles was aneurysm. Probably many of you have heard the same rumblings.  However, at this point, with this inside info from the DNC, it looks like this Obama strategy will be a go.  Therefore, it seems that the best strategy is to get out in front of this Obama maneuver, spell it out in detail, and thereby expose it for the grand manipulation that it is.  So, let’s start mixing this one up and cut the Obamites off at the pass - send this info out to as many people as you can - post about it on websites and blogs, etc.

When I did a Google search on “biden ‘probably many of you have heard the same rumblings’” I got 582 hits.  I find it terribly interesting that almost all of the discussion concerning the email is whether it strategically makes sense, rather than whether it’s true.  There’s an almost working assumption the email must be real and that Obama’s meeting with Clinton in Harlem was were the devil deal was made.

The analysis I’ve found that I got the biggest kick out of was from Death by 1000 Papercuts.  “Mondo” does a detailed examination of Obama and McCain’s web sites and merchandise stores and smells something funny; while McCain was quick to add Palin to the web site and merchanside, there is almost no Obama-Biden merchandise available:

Thinking, “this is how rumors get started,” a little road trip seemed to be in order.  If Joe Biden were not the solid VP pick–and due to be replaced in the rumored “October Surprise”–it would seem that there wouldn’t be much of an investment made by the Obama campaign in Obama-Biden campaign materials and merchandise.  We visited three Obama campaign offices in three different states, called several others in a few states picked at random and checked out Barackobama.com’s online store to see what the situation was.  There seemed to be plenty of campaign material for Barack Obama, sans Biden. In fact, “Obama-Biden” didn’t seem to be much on display at all in any of the offices.

It’s been nearly a month since Barack Obama named Joe Biden as his vice-presidential pick: what’s the hold-up with the Obama-Biden campaign materials? Why is there almost no Obama-Biden merchandise available?  This is a candidate whose campaign has planned for this race for months–some would say years.  As was stated, there is no end to the “Only Obama” campaign materials.

Joyce, in the Portland OR Obama office told us that, “No one has any (Obama-Biden campaign merchandise).  We don’t have any Obama-Biden stuff. The national campaign says it’s sold out and back-ordered. It’ll be about two weeks until we get any.”  Two weeks?  That would place the date around the 4th or 5th of October, incidentally.

We talked to Paul in the Washington PA Obama office–which was busy at the time–and he told us that there wasn’t any Obama-Biden signs, t-shirts or stickers in that office, at least right now.  We were told that there were “some Obama-Biden buttons. We’re asking a $50 donation for them.”  … Dan, at the Belmont office in Bellaire OH, said, “No, we don’t have any Obama-Biden signs or T-shirts. They’re supposed to be coming in the next couple weeks.”

by WonkoKevin

The so-called presumptive nominee lost in West Virginia by 51%.  Wait a second you say–I thought Obama lost by 41% to Clinton, 67% to 26%?  You are correct, that was the score on the Democratic side.  On the Republican side, back on Super Tuesday Feb 5 (doesn’t that seem like a year ago?), John McCain got 12 votes–one percent–losing to Mike Huckabee by 51% and behind second place finisher Mitt Romney by 46%.  McCain’s campaign could only muster 12 votes?  Doesn’t the McCain campaign staff collectively have more that 12 friends or relatives in West Virginia?  Now, what does that say about the Fall? That Huckabee and Romney supporters are going to vote Democratic instead? Kind of puts the spin from yesterday in some perspective…

by WonkoKevin

After Clinton’s 10-point, er… 9.5-point… if you go by delegates, 8-point win in Pennsylvania, people are asking why Obama can’t close the deal. He’s the leader, right? The “presumptive candidate”? Certainly, presumptive candidates aren’t supposed to lose, that’s a no brainer. But how big a win should we expect from the presumptive candidate? For comparison we can look at how John McCain has done since he wrapped up the Republican nomination on March 4. On that night, he won all four states: Ohio (60%), Rhode Island (65), Texas (51… as many of his would-be voters were busy voting for Hillary), and Vermont (72). Only two states have had Republican primaries since then: he won Mississippi on March 11 with 79%, and Pennsylvania last week with 73%. So let’s call 70% the breakeven point–above it and you’re fine, below it and people are talking. Of course, if Obama was getting 70% or more now, the race really would be over.

by WonkoKevin

Changes in Wonkosphere buzz share suggest that Hillary Clinton will pull out a not-large-enough victory in Pennsylvania tomorrow, perhaps with a lead in popular votes of 3-6% but tied in delegates earned.  During Obama’s two bad weeks, liberal buzz share favored Clinton 60-40, a distinct reversal from the previous month or so.  In the last ten days though it has flipped back, with Obama ahead 60-40 and stable as can be.  Local polls seem to also indicate a relatively stable margin still favoring Clinton, but down in the single digits.  A four-point win for Clinton is not a win, really, but only a loss could keep her from moving onto Indiana and North Carolina… Professional bettors have Clinton as a 2:5 favorite to win Pennsylvania, and Obama at 1:6 to win the Democrat nomination. 

by WonkoKevin

Throughout the campaign season John McCain’s buzz share in Wonkosphere shot up after almost every debate as the format gave him an opportunity to shine.  Now, McCain is still winning debates, even when he isn’t a participant!  Most of the pundits agree that the de facto winner of last night’s Clinton-Obama debate was McCain, as Clinton turned in a better performance, continuing the comeback narrative that will play out (one way or another) in PA, NC, and IN.   Taylor Marsh and The Moderate Voice have great summaries of blog and MSM opinion on the debate.  I’ll reproduce here what I thought were the most representative and interesting posts. (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Everyone seems to be claiming that Obama’s momentum will continue on for the next 2 weeks and he will win Pennsylvania, thereby closing this chapter of the campaign.  However, the term “momentum” implies “ever increasing”, and I am not sure the data bears that out.  I took the 16 Pennsylvania polls that have been done since March 24 and treated each as a true snapshot of the PA electorate, using the end date of the survey as the polling time.  If a day didn’t have a poll ending, I just carried over the previous day’s poll number, and if a day had two or more polls ending, I averaged them.  The graph below shows the gap between Clinton and Obama (positive means Clinton is ahead).  You’ll see that while April Fools was bad for her, she seems to have recovered, albeit not to the level prior to the drop-off.  I am not sure that a 6 or 8 percent win means much for her, but if the current trend continues she could end up over 10 percent again.

by WonkoKevin

What’s next, is John McCain going to become a regular on Air America?  From Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, a devout Hillary supporter: “I think during this entire primary coverage, starting in Iowa and up to the present — FOX has done the fairest job, and remained the most objective of all the cable networks. You hate both of our candidates. No, I’m only kidding. But you actually have done a very balanced job of reporting the news, and some of the other stations are just caught up with Senator Obama, who is a great guy, but Senator Obama can do no wrong, and Senator Clinton can do no right.”

by WonkoKevin

Here at Wonkosphere we expect and are not particularly concerned when politicians stretch the truth a bit in the name of framing.  Heck, even a blatant lie here and there are good for business in the world of buzz.  But when a candidate misspeaks about communication theory, we here at Wonkosphere have stand up and say “No!  You shall not besmirch informatics!” (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Hillary Clinton’s long-awaited daily schedules have been publicly released at the William J. Clinton Library web site.  Forget McCain’s Iraq trip, or The Speech, or even Spitzer.  Drop it all and start reading Hillary’s schedules.  I got caught with a tear in my eye with the following typical passage, from 1/31/1993: (more…)

by WonkoKevin

From MakeThemAccountable.com, a memo from Peter Daou, Hillary Clinton’s internet director: (more…)