by WonkoKevin

Barack Obama might have come out of Tuesday’s debate with a pundit-proclaimed minor victory, but the Wonkosphere as a whole didn’t seem to see it that way.  Obama, who overtook Hillary Clinton for buzz share amongst liberal bloggers on Monday (first time in a long time), plunged 17 percentage points between Tuesday and Wednesday.  John Edwards, Clinton, and Joe Biden came out with fairly significant buzz share increases.  Dennis Kucinich lost a point, even with the UFO (and impeachment) remarks.  Here’s a summary of who went up and down yesterday, post debate:

Edwards +7

Clinton +5

Biden +5

Dodd +1

Kucinich -1

Richardson -3

Obama -17

Watching the debate, I thought Clinton was playing shutout as a goaltender and then flubbed it with seconds to go.  The “license driver” exchange then in turn caused MSM and pundits to recast the entire debate as one of Clinton fending off questions, turning a win into a loss.  I would be surprised if this hurt her in upcoming IA or NH polls, but it certainly is a messy topic in the general election.  OTOH, Edwards’ effectiveness on Tuesday will help him slow down some of the negative momentum he’s had over the last few weeks.  Obama?  He was thrown a softball down the middle of the plate with the first question on Tuesday, and he laid down a sacrifice bunt.  Gotta go for the homer dude!

by WonkoKevin

In a bold move attempting to revitalize their sagging campaigns and vault ahead of front-runners Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd decided not to go on a hunger strike until changes are made to start bringing the troops home from Iraq.  Dodd, who was already getting significant positive spin in Wonkosphere for his threat of a filibuster over telecos’ immunization from prosecution, did not receive 40% buzz share from liberals, while Biden, following Dodd’s lead and not joining him, did not receive 36% buzz share.  Hillary Clinton, who has been pulling down 30-40% buzz share for the last six months, was not down to 3%, slightly above Steven Colbert.

Dodd and Biden have decided to not hang out on cots in the Senate, where Senate security has decided to leave them be.  Doctors are not monitoring their health as both don’t partake in a liquid-only diet.  There is not discussion of other Democrats from the Senate and House joining them, as a large portion of the public does not rally around their line-in-the-sand.  Republicans are not crying publicity stunt, as MSM attention has not shifted and they don’t need to worry about figuring out how to get it back.  Both Dodd and Biden were facing the impossible task of climbing over 3 or 4 candidates in front of them; now, 6 days not into the hunger strike, Dodd is not leading Edwards in Iowa by 6%, and Biden is not 15% in front of Bill Richardson in New Hampshire.  This has not completely changed the face of the race.

by WonkoKevin

If Al Gore were to enter the presidential race, who would it hurt the most?  The conventional think he’d bite into Clinton’s lead.  That may happen down the road, but there’s slim chance of it happening out of the gate.  Wonks discuss the possible impact to Obama and Edwards–there’s only room for one not-Hillary candidate they reason.  Maybe, but Obama and Edwards supporters really like them a lot.  If they were looking for an alternative, the could simply switch sides with each other.  It’s more likely that Gore (hypothetically) comes into the race in the number four spot, so who does that hurt the most?  The candidates vying for #4: Bill Richardson and Joe Biden.  Wonkosphere numbers bear this hypothesis out.  As Gore’s buzz share has increased in the last three days, it’s had no effect on the buzz share of Clinton, Obama, or Edwards; but it’s directly eaten into Richardson’s and Biden’s buzz share. 

Update from CNN: “A source involved in Gore’s past political runs told CNN that he definitely has the ambition to use the peace prize as a springboard to run for president. But he will not run, because he won’t take on the political machine assembled by Sen. Hillary Clinton, said the source. If the senator from New York had faltered at all, Gore would take a serious look at entering the race, the source said. But Gore has calculated that Clinton is unstoppable, according to the source.” 

Photo and license by Joe Crimmings.

by WonkoKevin

Joe Biden came in 3rd place with 15% of Wonkosphere buzz share amongst liberal bloggers yesterday.  This represented the third day in a row that Biden has increased in buzz share, and significantly, the third time in the last two weeks in which he has bumped up to 3rd place in buzz share.  Is this a portent of change in the polls?

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by WonkoKevin

John Edwards had the biggest increase in Wonkopshere buzz share the day following the Democratic debate in New Hampshire.  Edwards increased buzz share from 20% to 25% amongst liberal bloggers, and also had the biggest increase in buzz share amongst conservative bloggers.  Other debate benefitters were Gravel and Kucinich, whose buzz shares increased by 2 percentage points each.  Dodd, Obama, and Richardson each loss a percentage point, and Clinton lost 4 percentage points.  Buzz on Biden went the most quiet, going down 8 percentage points.  Even though he had a good debate, it followed a day of intense buzz due to the passing of his Iraq soft-partition bill.  Edwards also got a lot of buzz amongst the MTV and MySpace audiences last night, being the first candidate to participate in a 1-hour forum hosted by MTV and MySpace.  Edwards relished the format and wowed them, according to the feedback from the MySpace audience.

by WonkoKevin

Last night’s debate at Dartmouth University in New Hampshire (full transcript here) is being reported by MSM as a fight between Hillary Clinton and the other contenders.  While that dynamic was obvious, I thought the debate was notable for the multiple lines of fracture that emerged, as candidates vied to differentiate themselves from both Clinton and each other.  Since it’s obvious that Clinton will be opposed seriously by someone, it is these secondary fractures which may be more telling and important.

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by WonkoKevin

Three different presidential candidates got face time on MSNBC after the President’s address to the nation.  Who got the biggest bump in buzz share from their appearance?  According to Wonkosphere, Mike Huckabee came out worst; no bump in conservative blogs, and actually a decrease in buzz share in liberal blogs.  John Edwards much touted 2-minute paid ad got him a 50% increase in buzz share in both spheres.  Joe Biden made out best though, getting an 80% increase in buzz share from liberal bloggers.  Biden got time both before and after Bush’s speech, and his tone was what the base wanted to hear.  Edwards had a similar message, but his more measured tone led to a less enthusiastic response.  

from WonkoKevin

Senator Joe Biden had 15% buzz share in Wonkosphere over the last 24 hours.  Biden got everybody talking after his appearance on Meet The Press this weekend.  I’ve noticed most of the postings discussing these statements–on both sides–have only clipped a sentence from or paraphrased Biden, so I’ve included the longer quotes here. 

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Both liberal and conservative bloggers and commentary in the mainstream media caught on to a subtle shift in the interpersonal dynamics of the Democratic presidential campaign yesterday during the AFL-CIO sponsored debate. 
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