by WonkoSteve

After staying well below John McCain on the Mud Meter for nearly the whole contest, Barack Obama’s negative language with respect to McCain spiked up the day before Halloween and has been moving upward into record terroritory (for him) ever since.   Is this an indication of worry on the part of Team Obama, or are they just trying to seal the deal, keeping their powder dry ’till the endgame?  I guess we find out tomorrow.

Meanwhile, unless something changes by tomorrow, McCain will hold on to his ignoble record for the highest Mud Meter score.  These scores are a one-week moving average, and the last week of July was the muddiest week for McCain, with a high score of  4.92 on August 1, against a score of 4.82 today for Obama.

For comparison, in 2004 the highest value for Kerry came on November 1 at 4.38.  For Bush the high was 4.39 on September 30.  So both 2008 candidates are speaking more ill of their opponents than either candidate did in 2004.

by WonkoKevin

Here we are–the Big Day is almost upon us! This has been the most interesting presidential race I have experienced in my lifetime (I am 47), and as an “analyst” intensely following the race, it has been an experience I will never forget. From wondering if/when Fred Thompson was going to break out to the breakout we saw McCain get in late December to Obama forging ahead of Clinton in buzz share right before his winning streak started, there are a lot of WonkoMemories to process. And it has been fascinating to see how social media has evolved and matured. Here are some thoughts for Monday 11/3/08.

1. Obama leads McCain in Wonkosphere buzz share 66-34 over the last 24 hours. This spread has remained the same over the past week so the blogosphere is not sending any message that polls are inaccurate.

2. For the first time in the entire campaign, Obama’s Mud Meter has moved ahead of McCain’s. Obama now is using twice as much negative language when talking about McCain as McCain is when talking about Obama. Throughout most of the campaign, McCain was slightly but consistently more negative about Obama.

 3. Bloggers are using historically negative language overall. I think this indicates where the campaigns are right now.

4. How long are we going to go tomorrow night until the winner is called? Well, if McCain pulls off a miracle, we’ll be up all night. Wouldn’t it make sense for this campaign to come down to Hawaii and Alaska? I’d give this a 2% chance. If there’s an Obama landslide, the race could be called around 10PM EST, when Iowa’s polls close. Again, there is some poetic justice here with McCain getting closed out by Iowa. I’d give this a 28% chance. My 70% prediction gives Obama 320-345 electoral votes, in which case Obama would have to wait for California polls to close at 11PM EST.