Archive for April 21st, 2008

PA prediction: Clinton by 4

Monday, April 21st, 2008

by WonkoKevin

Changes in Wonkosphere buzz share suggest that Hillary Clinton will pull out a not-large-enough victory in Pennsylvania tomorrow, perhaps with a lead in popular votes of 3-6% but tied in delegates earned.  During Obama’s two bad weeks, liberal buzz share favored Clinton 60-40, a distinct reversal from the previous month or so.  In the last ten days though it has flipped back, with Obama ahead 60-40 and stable as can be.  Local polls seem to also indicate a relatively stable margin still favoring Clinton, but down in the single digits.  A four-point win for Clinton is not a win, really, but only a loss could keep her from moving onto Indiana and North Carolina… Professional bettors have Clinton as a 2:5 favorite to win Pennsylvania, and Obama at 1:6 to win the Democrat nomination.