by WonkoKevin

Everyone seems to be claiming that Obama’s momentum will continue on for the next 2 weeks and he will win Pennsylvania, thereby closing this chapter of the campaign.  However, the term “momentum” implies “ever increasing”, and I am not sure the data bears that out.  I took the 16 Pennsylvania polls that have been done since March 24 and treated each as a true snapshot of the PA electorate, using the end date of the survey as the polling time.  If a day didn’t have a poll ending, I just carried over the previous day’s poll number, and if a day had two or more polls ending, I averaged them.  The graph below shows the gap between Clinton and Obama (positive means Clinton is ahead).  You’ll see that while April Fools was bad for her, she seems to have recovered, albeit not to the level prior to the drop-off.  I am not sure that a 6 or 8 percent win means much for her, but if the current trend continues she could end up over 10 percent again.

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 9th, 2008 at 2:58 pm and is filed under Horse race, Clinton, Obama. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.