by WonkoKevin

It was supposed to be over by now. In fact, back in March 2007, most bloggers were dreading this portion of the campaign season, for it represented the long haul between knowing who the two candidates were and the corresponding conventions. What the hell was there going to be to talk about? A few dreamers told us to consider the possibility that it wouldn’t be over by Super Tuesday, but who believed them? Certainly not the states, who ran over each other this year to be early. Michigan and Florida were so convinced that it would be over by Feb 5 they gambled their convention seating; nice move. Well, be careful what you wish for because now we have it–the campaign that won’t stop. Unless Clinton gets beat 60-40 in PA, this looks to be going all the way to the convention, and given the lateness of selecting a Democrat, the ensuing rush to November will be all the more intense. Bloggers and other politicos not only are going to miss spring break this week, they’re going to be going on summer vacations with their Blackberries close in hand.

So given that Obama and Clinton are going to continue to duke it out for months, what’s next? What happens when a conversation goes on way too long? Here are five things that happen in person-to-person conversations that go beyond their limit; I imagine the same will happen between both the candidates and their respective bloggers.

1. Obsessive loops–you keep on saying the same thing, over and over and over again. This is part of…

2. Go on auto-pilot. Everything is routinized so as to make it to the next day.

3. Say stupid things; also see: Say too much.

4. Tit for tat, see also: She said, he said.

5. No time to think–when all you’re doing is verbal tennis, who has time to think of something worthwhile to say?

by WonkoKevin

County-level results from Texas suggest that Republican cross-over voting may have well given Hillary Clinton a victory in the Texas primary, thus enabling a narrative that has allowed to her to remain in the race.  This has been reported in the WSJ, but my number crunching indicates the so-called Limbaugh effect may be significantly larger than is being estimated.  First, from Washington Wire: (more…)

by WonkoKevin

Hillary Clinton is now pulling the majority of liberal buzz in Wonkosphere, beating Obama 53 to 47% yesterday. Conversely, conservatives are still leaning towards Obama as the likely nominee, as Obama wins their attention 54 to 46%. On the Republican side, John McCain continues to enjoy significantly positive sentiment from conservative bloggers; his buzz from conservatives is considerably more positive than liberal’s buzz on Clinton and Obama, supporting the hypothesis that continued in-fighting degrades public sentiment of both candidates.

by WonkoKevin

An important analysis by Jonathan Alter of Newsweek shows it’s virtually impossible to compose a scenario where Clinton ends up with more delegates than Obama going into the convention: “…it’s on to Wyoming on Saturday, where, let’s say, the momentum of today helps her win 53-47. Next Tuesday in Mississippi—where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary—she shocks the political world by winning 52-48. Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it’s a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam’s two delegates on May 30, and Indiana’s proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6, with the Hoosiers going for Hillary 55-45. The same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state: enough North Carolina blacks desert Obama to give the state to Hillary 52-48, netting her five more delegates.

“Suppose May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. The identical 55-45 result on May 20 in Kentucky nets her five more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Oops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3, and primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates. She has enjoyed a string of 16 victories in a row over three months. So at the end of regulation, Hillary’s the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn’t even account for Texas’s weird “pri-caucus” system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That’s a 58-delegate lead.

“Let’s say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn’t helping me here.) So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal. For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead. The Clintonites can spin to their heart’s content about how Obama can’t carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can’t close the deal. How they’ve got the Big Mo now. Tell it to Slate’s Delegate Calculator.”

by WonkoKevin

Congratulations to John McCain for making his nomination official.  In the end, McCain won not so much because he forged a conservative coalition a priori, but because he ran the best campaign.  After a messy start, he cleaned house and did well in all important dimensions: retail, fundraising, press relations, and consistency.   These are all things that will continue to bode well for him into the fall.  A positive word also has to be said about Mike Huckabee, who has formally dropped out of the race.  Huckabee, not Ron Paul, was the pentultimate Politics 2.0 candidate.  The blogsphere fell in love with him early on, provided grass roots support, and in part fueled his Iowa performance; in the end, the blogosphere is also responsible from being him down with 6 weeks of negative buzz following his climb in the polls.  I doubt Huckabee could have gotten this far pre-Internet.

Man was I wrong on my Obama sweep prediction.  Kudos to Clinton who actually outdid their own expecatations and who gained the right to claim victory this morning.  My prediction of Obama wins was based on the fact that in the last 2 months of primaries, Obama’s poll numbers have been significantly underestimated.  Not this time.  Instead, I should have paid attention to the Wonkosphere data.  Check out Hillary’s buzz share in the last two weeks (conservative-red, liberal-blue).  Note how it spiked up starting 2/29.  Let’s see what kind of buzz-legs her victories have for her now.  Will she retake the lead from Obama in liberal buzz share?  Will she again become the primary target for conservative bloggers?  All this and more, stay tuned!

by WonkoKevin

Most people and polls are predicting close races in tomorrow’s primaries, with conventional wisdom giving Obama wins in Texas and Vermont, and Clinton wins in Ohio and Rhode Island. I am going so step out on a limb and make a bolder prediction: Obama will win Ohio by 5%, Texas by 12, Vermont by 24, and will even pull off a 1-point squeeker win in Rhode Island, forcing Clinton to withdraw by Thursday or Friday. My basis? Well, Wonkosphere buzz share numbers are hard to call right now. Clinton’s buzz share amongst liberal bloggers has overtaken Obama’s in the last several days, but most of that is death march stuff. My prediction is based on my observation from the last round of primaries that the polls, on average, seem to be biased against Obama by 10 points, effectively missing the superiority of his ground game. I think this will be all the more evident in Ohio and Texas where Obama appears to have benefitted from early voting, as his supporters have organized en masse voting marches. Eight polls over the last week have Clinton up by 4.5% in Ohio, and 11 polls have Obama up by 2% in Texas. Sure, conventional wisdom is they both come out even and Clinton presses on, but my money is that we’ll be hearing Taps sometime late Tuesday night.

by WonkoKevin

Despite mainstream sentiment that he’s quit, Mike Gravel continues onward… Gravel, a former Alaskan Senator who is perhaps most famous for his role in making the Pentagon Papers public, is remaining active with a mostly anti-war, anti-corporate message. Yesterday, Gravel filed a lawsuit to stop a pro-Clinton 527 ad from airing. From Gravel: ““This ad is clearly an appeal for people to vote for Hillary and therefore directly contradicts both the spirit and the letter of the law. This ad affects me not only as one of the three remaining candidates for the Democratic nomination but also as a citizen who has watched 527s run circles around the FEC. I urge the courts to ban this ad and any other similar ads from airing on TV, or alternatively, would welcome this 527 organization to properly register with the Federal Election Commission and play by the election campaign rules.” Also this week, Gravel staged an “alternative debate” to counter the Obama-Clinton debate, and declared his support for impeachment of Bush and Cheney. Finally, Gravel takes on McCain.