Out on a limb: Obama by 5 in Ohio and 12 in Texas
by WonkoKevin
Most people and polls are predicting close races in tomorrow’s primaries, with conventional wisdom giving Obama wins in Texas and Vermont, and Clinton wins in Ohio and Rhode Island. I am going so step out on a limb and make a bolder prediction: Obama will win Ohio by 5%, Texas by 12, Vermont by 24, and will even pull off a 1-point squeeker win in Rhode Island, forcing Clinton to withdraw by Thursday or Friday. My basis? Well, Wonkosphere buzz share numbers are hard to call right now. Clinton’s buzz share amongst liberal bloggers has overtaken Obama’s in the last several days, but most of that is death march stuff. My prediction is based on my observation from the last round of primaries that the polls, on average, seem to be biased against Obama by 10 points, effectively missing the superiority of his ground game. I think this will be all the more evident in Ohio and Texas where Obama appears to have benefitted from early voting, as his supporters have organized en masse voting marches. Eight polls over the last week have Clinton up by 4.5% in Ohio, and 11 polls have Obama up by 2% in Texas. Sure, conventional wisdom is they both come out even and Clinton presses on, but my money is that we’ll be hearing Taps sometime late Tuesday night.
