Does effectiveness matter when you’re on the Titanic?
by WonkoKevin
In every disaster movie we see individuals caught in a deathly struggle. Sometimes the ones who die are the ones who are completely ineffectual or selfish; but sometimes the ones who die are just a victim of bad luck, bad timing. Obamania has crashed over the bridge of the American political ship. Would it really have mattered much whether Hillary Clinton had continued to run a “perfect” campaign? As Clinton’s nomination hopes fade, there is no shortage of explanations why. The SC debacle. The driver’s license debate flub. Personality. Etc. To me an equally relevant question is: Would it have mattered?
My short answer is: yes, she was out-candidated. Her standing in the polls early on was largely driven by name recognition, and high favorables amongst Democrats. In Iowa, where people were paying the most attention, they never made Clinton inevitable. Clinton’s subsequent wins in NH, CA, MA, and NY showed she still had a strong base and could compete, but I think the loss in SC (and to Ted Kennedy) was the turning point because it gave Obama presidential confidence. You can see the qualitative difference in the way he talks and carries himself since that victory. So Hillary allowed Obamania to emerge from SC. Given its emergence, I don’t think it makes any difference what she has done or will do.
