Improve your prediction: Add +10 to any Obama state poll
by WonkoKevin
Is there any U.S. politician besides a Clinton that could still be considered “alive” after losses of 23, 29, and 17 points? The news for Clinton is distinctly funereal in its nature this morning. Many different survival scenarios are posited, but the delegate mathematics suggest the nomination is pretty well wrapped up for Obama. You want to know how over it is? The betting odds for Obama to win the presidency are now better than even, while McCain is 2:1 and Clinton is 6:1.
One emerging pattern of interest is how much the state-level polls are underestimating Obama strength, or perhaps turnout. I went through all the polls done a week before the Virginia, Maryland, and Wisconsin primaries, and the conclusion is that if you want the best prediction, add +5 to Obama’s percentage and subtract 5 from Clinton’s. In Wisconsin, 5 polls had Obama by +5.5%, and he won by +17%. In Maryland, 6 polls had him up +16%, and he won by +23%. In Virginia, 7 polls had him up +18%, and he won by +29%. SurveyUSA has Clinton at +5% in Texas and +9% in Ohio. Assuming the primaries were tomorrow, we might be better to predict an Obama win of +5% in Texas–and, you knew it was coming!–a squeeker in Ohio.
February 20th, 2008 at 7:20 am
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March 3rd, 2008 at 6:12 am
[…] in the last several days, but most of that is death march stuff. My prediction is based on my observation from the last round of primaries that the polls, on average, seem to be biased against Obama by 10 […]