Economy in free fall, or Clinton’s campaign?
by WonkoKevin
Hillary Clinton’s latest commercial features a person falling out of a plane in a free fall as the announcer talks about the state of the economy. At the last minute, the Clinton-as-parachute comes to the rescue. (Is a parachute a good metaphor for leadership? This frame is a really bad marketing choice…) One can’t help but draw parallels to the state of the Clinton campaign itself, with a huge loss in Maine, where she expected to win or be close, and the replacement of her campaign manager, Patty Doyle. Let’s take a look at some good commentary.
From Steve Kornacki at The Politicker:
A bad weekend for Hillary Clinton just got a whole lot worse. Along with her husband and her daughter, Clinton had campaigned aggressively in Maine, with an eye toward blunting the impact of Barack Obama’s expected Saturday night sweep of Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington and in an effort to avoid being shut out for the entire month leading up to the Ohio and Texas primaries.
But Maine’s Democrats caucused on Sunday afternoon and decisively sided with Obama, marking his fourth consecutive victory since the Super Tuesday stalemate — and setting the stage for what will almost certainly be three more wins this coming Tuesday in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C.
Clinton’s weekend wipeout will only made worse by the news that her Patti Solis Doyle is departing as her campaign manager, to be replaced by Maggie Williams. In reality, this may not be a seismic development within the Clinton campaign, but on the heels of such ugly election results, it will only feed into the process narrative that Obama has begun to move ahead and that Team Hillary is starting to panic.
Unquestionably, the Maine results constitute a major upset. In addition to her family’s politicking, Hillary was boosted by support from the state’s Democratic governor, John Baldacci, and from demographics that seemed to favor her: a preponderance of lower-income white voters — a constituency with which she has done very well to date — in the state’s inland cities and many working-class towns. She had also previously fared well throughout the Northeast, losing only Connecticut (and narrowly at that).
But with nearly 90 percent of precincts reporting, Obama’s lead had stretched near 20 points. Record turnout was reported around the state — the last vigorously contested Maine caucuses were in 1992 — particularly in the more educated and higher-income coastal communities in the southern part of the state. Obama also fared well in college towns like Farmington and Waterville, and seemed to make inroads in some of the working-class strongholds that should have favored Hillary (for instance, he won Gardiner, which is just outside Augusta).
One reason Clinton campaign so badly wanted to win Maine was for a jolt of good news just before this Tuesday’s primaries. They seem resigned to defeat in D.C. and Maryland, but have made a considerable investment in Virginia. At the least, they’d like to keep the margins close enough in those states to collect a sizable number of delegates — and to prevent Obama from taking the lead in overall (superdelegates included) national count.
But polls released Sunday show Obama leading by 16 points in Maryland and 18 in Virginia. Both are primary states, meaning they will attract more casual voters than a caucus state like Maine. And it is among these casual voters that Obama’s weekend sweep — and the news of the Clinton campaign “shake-up” — could have a powerful psychological effect, making the Obama bandwagon that much more inviting and, perhaps, inflating his standing in both states.
Maine was the Clinton campaign’s best hope of averting a shutout in the run-up to March 4. Now they might be happy just to avoid blowout losses between now and then.
Here’s a report from ground zero:
Sen. Barack Obama won Maine’s Democratic caucuses Sunday as massive numbers of voters braved inclement weather. The Illinois Democrat beat Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., by a margin of 59 percent to 40 percent with 95 percent of precincts reporting, giving Obama 15 of Maine’s 24 pledged delegates who will be bound to vote for him at the party’s national convention.
More than 46,000 voters, including 4,000 who cast absentee ballots, participated in the caucuses, easily breaking the record of 17,000 from 2004. “We exceeded that in a way none of us could have foreseen,” said Arden Manning, executive director of Maine’s Democratic Party. “Democrats really want something different, and they want something new. That’s why they attended in such high numbers.”
Obama and Clinton vigorously campaigned to win Maine, stumping in the state Saturday and sending in their biggest supporters. Both camps squabbled about whether to debate, and Obama hammered Clinton for her votes on coastal drilling and her plan to provide home oil heating subsidies to poor households. It was an “upset” victory, said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, adding that internal polling showed Clinton in the lead days before the caucus.
… The record voter turnout in Maine plus the bad weather led to long lines and confusion at many caucus sites about how a caucus works. The caucus at Cape Elizabeth High School started an hour behind schedule. Caucusgoers waited in two lines snaking out the door even as a wet snow started to fall shortly after 1 p.m. Portland High School was mobbed with voters three hours before the caucus was scheduled to begin. A line of people stretched from inside the building to outside in the falling snow, with the end of the line falling on Congress Street — three blocks from the school’s Cumberland Avenue entrance. Inside, the school’s athletic teams held bake sales as some voters clamored for seats inside the gymnasium and many others figured out where to register.
Sive Neilan, a Democratic Party caucus organizer, said the local party couldn’t hold the caucus at bigger venues — the Cumberland County Civic Center or the Portland Exposition Building, for example — because organizers needed several rooms to hold separate precinct-by-precinct votes. The high school classrooms provided an easy way to cordon off voters, Neilan said. “This is as good as we get,” she said in the crowded hallway. Neilan said turnout at the 2004 caucus was around 2,400. About 4,000 attended Sunday’s caucus. Asked why party officials were unprepared for the surge, given the larger-than-usual turnout in many other states, she said the party trained about 30 registrars for the caucus — more than double the number used in 2004. While they expected more voters than usual Sunday, the massive turnout was a surprise, Neilan said.
“This is the Obama tsunami, and we’re getting hit by it,” she said. Once inside, voters navigated a maze of lines to check in for the event. Some complained about the 60- to 90-minute wait; others saw it as evidence of a landmark election year. Many appeared to take the delays and weather in stride. “I am overwhelmed. It is such a good sign for our party,” Maine House Speaker Glenn Cummings said. “The caucuses are not prepared for this level of capacity. It does make a case for primaries or absentee balloting.” “This is great, great that this many people are here,” said Karen Westburg, a retired state employee. “I’m cold. I’m wet. But I’m still glad I’m here.”
Many Democrats were patient through the bad weather and long waits to accomplish a singular goal: electing a Democrat in November. “I’m sick of (President) Bush,” said Erica Gilbert, 17, of Portland, who waited outside in the snow with friend Hillary Orr, 18, a senior at Portland High. The caucus at Cape Elizabeth High drew 682 voters, more than doubling its turnout from 2004. Obama easily won, 556-217. Ninety-four Democrats voted by absentee ballot. Obama’s supporters, including 17-year-olds who will turn 18 before Election Day, Nov. 4, overwhelmed Clinton’s backers. “I’ve never had any experience in politics. Normally I don’t care,” said Tommy Houge, a 17-year-old senior. “If it wasn’t for him, I would not be coming today.” Others were just as inspired by Obama, but a bit more strategically. “I’m voting for Obama because he can beat McCain,” said Haley Cushing, a 17-year-old senior at Cape Elizabeth High, referring to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee.
– Staff Writer Elbert Aull contributed to this story.
