Republican math: Game done… or not?
by WonkoKevin
Depending on which set of assumptions you want to buy into, one either concludes that John McCain has it wrapped up, or Republicans have got some chance of going to Minneapolis with a nominee. Supporting the former is the apparent fact that while California came out 42-34% McCain-Romney, the delegate count will come out something like 160-10, even with proportionality. From FirstRead: “Speaking with reporters today, McCain adviser Charlie Black said, “To date, we have 775 delegates, Romney has 284, Huckabee has 205. It takes 1,191 to clinch the nomination. There are 963 left to be chosen, so Romney or Huckabee would have to have all of them — all of them — to get to 1,191. Now you can’t do that because a majority of those 963 are chosen in proportional primaries, which means you’d have to get 100% if the vote to get them all.”
But from a Hot Air reader we have this: “All Mitt (and Huckabee) need to do to deny McCain enough delegates to win the nomination is win 547 of the remaining 963 delegates - roughly 57%. Which means it will go to the convention, where anything can happen. Given that around 66% of Republicans voted for someone other than McCain last night, it’s not out of the question, especially given most of the upcoming contests are awarded on a proportional basis and McCain won’t be taking primaries outright (like he did last night).”
