And then there were four…
by WonkoKevin
Two rights don’t right a wrong. I picked Romney and Clinton, but thought Huckabee would beat McCain because of lower independent turnout in South Carolina. Turns out there was lower independent turnout, and strong evangelical turnout, but McCain did pretty well with both. So congratulations to John and Mitt and Hillary, and I guess Barack too when it comes to delegate counts. Ron Paul, nice silver in Nevada. Here’s how I see things standing:
For the Democrats, I think this was fatal for John Edwards. And note that even adding Edwards total to Obama’s wouldn’t have put Obama ahead of Clinton. I don’t see Edwards winning South Carolina or anything on Tsunami Tuesday, so if he stays in it is to have a voice. Obama has to win South Carolina; and if he does, he has to sweep the Midwest and most of the south and win either California or a big chunk of the rest of the west on Feb 5. It looks like there are certain states that Clinton has in the bag no matter what, and so for Obama it’s still an uphill struggle.
For the Republicans, if Huck couldn’t win in SC it’s hard to see where he will win that matters. The question to me is whether he has positioned himself as too extreme or come across as too inexperienced for a selection as VP. In his concession speech he was ultra-nice to McCain. McCain now becomes a strong favorite in Florida, although Romney can’t be underestimated. I see this as a 2-person race going into Feb 5, and perhaps early March.
Let’s review. The right has two candidates which they complain about, or at least have in the past, as being too left. The left has two candidates that they are questioning as to whether they’re too right. Seems like we must have our four choices!
In terms of Wonkosphere buzz share, take a snap shot of the home page this morning because I think this is where buzz share is going to be stuck at until ???… Clinton 20, McCain 19, Obama 18, Romney 14, Huckabee 11, Paul 5, Thompson 4, Edwards 3, Hunter 2, Giuliani 2, Kucinich 1, Gravel 0.
Things to look for this week:
1. Will Hillary make a big “vision” speech this week to try to put Obama away? She hasn’t done one yet.
2. Will Huckabee do something radical as a last shot at a comeback?
3. What is Fred going to do? Throw to McCain, or stay in to siphon votes away from Huckabee again?
4. Will MSM or bloggers pay any attention to Rudy? It’s now or never…
5. How many Florida and South Carolina polls are we going to see in the next week?
6. Pay attention to Dem Florida results–even if the delegates aren’t seated, Florida is the best predictor of the country-wide voting trends and should give a strong clue as to Feb 5 results.
