Wonkoblog gets B+ for predictions
by WonkoKevin
OK, maybe I am being generous, maybe a B would be more realistic but it was only that one problem I missed…Here’s a comparison of my predictions to the actual outcomes in New Hampshire, actual shown in parens:
Dems: Obama 42 (36), Clinton 33 (39), Edwards 19 (17), Richardson 5 (5), Kucinich 1 (1)
Reps: McCain 35 (37), Romney 31 (32), Huckabee 12 (11), Giuliani 10 (9), Paul 10 (8), Thompson 2 (1)
As I mentioned, there was no evidence of a Clinton upset in the Wonkosphere data. Clinton’s buzz share had in fact been going up, but it was almost all from negative posts. Bloggers got it wrong because pollers got it wrong, and pollers got it wrong because of many reasons, the most significant and important being Clinton’s gender bonus. I call it a “bonus” rather than a “gap” because there are more female voters, and Democratic voters, and females gave her a much bigger margin than males gave Obama. Finally a Clinton narrative has begun to emerge, and it’s a gender narrative.
