ObaMo and HuckMo
by WonkoKevin
Our two Iowa winners have a lot in common. Obama and Huckabee are the youngest candidate in their parties; both are considered relative outsiders; both are considered candid; both set themselves apart from the current and previous administrations; both are probably not the first pick of their party’s command center; both are (or at least, were) not the darling of their wing’s Wonkosphere; both have little foreign policy experience; and both are considered likeable, trustworthy, and idealistic. But to me, the Numero Uno reason that both won yesterday is that they are the best communicators within their respective parties. When you combine the retail politics of Politics 1.0 with the real-time nature of Politics 2.0, there is one skill that branches both–communication. Obama and Huckabee won because they can talk to people the best.
We did pretty well in our predictions. For the Democrats, Wonkoblog predicted Obama 33 (real:38), Edwards 31 (real:30), and Clinton 26 (real:29). I expected Biden and Richardson to get about 10% of the delegates, and they barely got any, so that percentage split about 2/3 to Obama and 1/3 to Clinton; otherwise I think we nailed it. For the Republicans we predicted Huckabee 32 (real:34), Romney 28 (real: 25), McCain 18 (real:13), Paul 10 (real:10), and Thompson 8 (real:13). So we were pretty much on with Huckabee, Romney, and Paul, but were off on McCain and Thompson. In retrospect, this prediction would have been better if I had paid more strict attention to Wonkosphere data and less to what I was hearing in MSM. The McCain MSM bandwagon didn’t impact Iowa voters, and his buzz share hadn’t been trending up in the past week. Conversely, Thompson did have a step-up in buzz share (from 6% to 12%), and it showed up in the final numbers.
For the Dems, it’s not inconceivable that Obama could sweep, although the Clintons have demonstrated a remarkable capability to recover. It’s harder for the Clinton to sell ”change” than Obama, but if Clinton can “stall” ObaMo in the next few states, her Feb 5 strategy can still work. Edwards finished too far behind Obama, and I have a feeling he’s out of it now.
For the Republicans, what is more shocking than Romney being 9% behind Huckabee is the fact that Romney was only 11% in front of Fred Thompson. When you compare not only how much money Romney spent but also how much personal time and energy (and money), it’s got to be a huge disappointment. I am not “inside” enough to know facts, but it sure seemed to me like Romney worked it as hard as anyone. The relatively stronger showing of Thompson and weaker showing of McCain (I don’t think he met expectations), along with Huckabee’s win over Romney, also demonstrates that conservative ideology was more important to Republican Iowans than pragmatism per se.
Ron Paul polled at 10% and got 10%. While I understand his “national” strategy, geez it seems with more effort there–maybe even some ads–he could have gotten 15% and finished third.
Wyoming Republicans pick delegates on Saturday, and there are no polls to go by. I’d predict same thing as I did for Iowa, a tight race between Romney and Huckabee for first and between Paul and McCain for third.
Finally, Wonkosphere bids a fond adieu to Joe, Chris, and Mike.
