by WonkoSteve

The buzz graph on the Wonkosphere home page shows combined buzz from all the spheres. While this says who is getting the most buzz overall, it does not track comparative buzz in a candidate’s “home sphere,” the one with the people who will vote in the primaries/caucuses. This is especially true of Clinton, who conservatives love to rant about (though as WonkoKevin pointed out, this seems to have lessened somewhat over the last week). For better within-party perspective during the run-up to Iowa on Thursday, here are comparison charts for the three presumable front runners in each party on buzz share and tone for the month of December.

Democrats

Here is the buzz share chart for Clinton, Edwards, and Obama:

These buzz share numbers are particularly interesting in that they show Obama on top for the whole month, except for a few days when he was narrowly bested by Clinton and/or Edwards. With the conservative buzz out of the picture, Clinton is a distinct, sometimes distant, second or third in the talk of the liberal Wonkosphere. Edwards’s numbers show a fairly consistent upward trend, as WonkoKevin pointed out about a week ago, supporting his prediction that we could be in for an Edwards upset on Thursday.

The Democratic tone numbers are not especially informative except for the fact that Clinton is consistently the lowest, and the numbers have converged over the course of the month. They were practically indistinguishable yesterday. The dip in tone over the last several days is no doubt due to the Bhutto assassination, and the internecine sniping among the front runners about who had the more Presidential reaction to the event. It looks like the event was good for about a four-day blip and things are now back to normal.

Based on these numbers, I would be the most worried if I were Clinton.

Republicans

Here is the share graph for Huckabee, McCain, and Romney:

Much more so than the Democrats, the Republican share numbers are showing convergence. Romey, though volatile, is keeping a more or less level trend line, whereas Huckabee is coming down somewhat. McCain shows the biggest surprise here, seeming to have jumped up 10% to a new level following Christmas Day. Could the Bhutto assassination have focused the conservative sphere on his foreign policy credentials?

The tone numbers are slightly more interesting for the Republicans. They have obviously converged too, but this is mostly from a decline for Huckabee. Interestingly, conservative tone fell farther after the Bhutto assassination and has yet to recover the pre-Christmas levels.

Based on these numbers I would be most worried if I were Romney.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 1st, 2008 at 12:56 pm and is filed under Romney, McCain, Horse race, Huckabee, Clinton, Edwards, Obama. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.