by WonkoKevin

In previous posts we’ve discussed how changes in Wonkosphere buzz share are predictive of changes in national poll numbers 2-3 weeks hence.  With Iowa less than one week away, however, a 2-3 week-ahead prediction doesn’t do much good.  And because of the impending January 3 date, everything is in hyperspeed now.  So we need to look for other clues in the data.  What we find is that the buzz share numbers in the conservative blogosphere largely mimic the current national polling numbers, while the buzz share numbers in the liberal blogosphere largely mimic the current poll numbers coming out of New Hampshire.

First, the Republicans.  What I was shocked by this morning was how evenly distributed Wonkosphere buzz share amongst conservative bloggers was–the most so I have seen since we started keeping track of buzz share last June.  Then I looked at the poll numbers, and they’re almost the same!  Below are buzz share data for the past 24 hours amongst conservative bloggers; national poll numbers from a recent Fox survey are shown in parentheses:

Huckabee, 23% (19%)

McCain, 20% (19%)

Paul, 16% (3%)

Romney, 13% (11%)

Thompson, 13% (10%)

Giuliani, 12% (20%)

Thus the conservative blogosphere is largely saying what the rest of the population is: We don’t really know who we want yet.

The data also highlight the blogosphere juggernaut of Ron Paul, and conversely the lack of webby support for Giuliani.

Here are the Democratic numbers.  The first number in parens is from the same Fox poll, and the second number is from a Times/Bloomberg poll in New Hampshire.

Obama, 37% (20% NAT, 32% NH)

Clinton, 34% (49% NAT, 30% NH)

Edwards, 15% (10% NAT, 20% NH)

Biden, 12% (3% NAT, 1% NH)

Richardson, 2% (2% NAT, 4% NH)

Iowa sees this as a three person race–the latest Strategic Vision poll shows 30-29-28.  New Hampshire and the liberal blogosphere see this as a two person race, unless Edwards wins Iowa; and the national sees this still as a one person race.

This entry was posted on Friday, December 28th, 2007 at 9:54 am and is filed under Horse race, Giuliani, Romney, McCain, Wonkosphere, Fred Thompson, Paul, Richardson, Biden, Clinton, Edwards, Huckabee, Obama. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.