Possible for McCain and Paul to take big steps in Iowa
by WonkoKevin
Back to the tea leaves, this time to predict the Republican Iowa caucus, now less than 12 days away. Most of our scenarios have Mike Huckabee winning; that would be a tough one to bet against now. Ditto, Mitt Romney in second. Both polling and Wonkosphere data seem to support this 1-2 finish. How much by, and who comes in third and fourth and last is much more difficult to predict.
Scenario 1, Probability = 0.40
Huckabee, 45
Romney, 25
McCain and Paul together, 15-20
Others, 10-15
The conventional wisdom for 1-2. I’m predicting that McCain and Paul have a chance at third place, and Thompson and Giuliani do not. That’s right–our most likely scenario has a chance of Ron Paul coming in third. In fact, it would not be surprising for Paul to beat McCain in Iowa at the same time that McCain was surging ahead of Romney in New Hamsphire polls. Taking the scenario a bit further, why would it be surprising to see Ron Paul come in 3rd in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada? Heck, if Thompson and Giuliani totally tank, maybe even South Carolina? Paul’s money chest appears to be aimed at sustaining a national campaign and he could walk into Minneapolis with a good number of delegates.
Scenario 2, Probability = 0.30
Huckabee, 35
Romney, 35
McCain and Paul together, 15-20
Others, 10-15
In this scenario Huckabee loses non-evangelical support to Romney. Huckabee maintains a strong base of evangelicals and Romney’s hard work in the state pays off. I don’t see any way for Romney to finish significantly ahead of Huckabee because of Huck’s strong base, but if it looks like a tie here, I think MSM sentiment will give Romney the win, because of such heavy expectations for Huckabee.
Scenario 3, Probability = 0.20
Huckabee, 30
Romney, 25
McCain, 25
Paul, 10
Others, 10
In this scenario, a significant number of Iowans tire of the micro-parsing from Romney (it depends what you mean by ”with”) and Huckabee (no I haven’t heard anything about the NIE), and go for the Straight Talk Express. McCain’s never going to get above 25% here. Even though Huckabee wins and Romney ties for second, in this case McCain would get the perceived win because of then the heightened chance for a big win in New Hampshire.
Scenario 4, Probability = 0.10
Huckabee, 25
Romney, 25
McCain and Paul together, 25
Others, 25
Not likely, but here’s our fun choice of the day! What does it mean? Who knows? Who has the momentum? No one and everyone! Minneapolis or bust!
