Buzz share suggests shift from Obama to Edwards
by WonkoKevin
With only two weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, there are subtle hints that momentum is shifting from Barack Obama to John Edwards. Is Wonkosphere buzz share across all the internet still meaningful when it comes down to state-level opinions? You bet–bloggers are the ones who are digesting the daily poll numbers and paying close attention to what each other are saying as well as what mainstream media is saying. Buzz share at this point in the horse race relates to how bloggers are interpreting the buzz out of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Thus it is our belief that changes in buzz share over the last week or two may have predictive power concerning what will happen on January 3, in the same manner that buzz share has been predictive of poll numbers throughout the rest of the race. Numbers are below the fold.
The following graph shows John Edwards buzz share amongst conservative (red) and liberal (blue) bloggers over the last two weeks. Notice the subtle but distinct positive (upwards) slope in the blue line over the last ten days, moving from 9% to 21%. If this sustains for another 3-4 days it’s a positive indicator for Edwards.
Conversely, Barack Obama’s buzz share has declined over the same time period, going from 44% to 28%; during the same time Hillary Clinton’s buzz share has remained constant. The Democratic race has really solidified down to three contenders; I don’t expect any upset in Iowa from Biden, Dodd, Richardson, or Kucinich. Thus from here on out buzz share will tend to be a “zero-sum” game between Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, and given that the race is framed as Clinton versus Anybody But Clinton, it really is a zero-sum game between Obama and Edwards, in terms of blogger attention. We’ll be keeping a careful eye on this dynamic over the next few days.
My own opinion is the same, having digested so many blogs and news shows. Edwards is being given an equal shot at Iowa and the pundits are saying it’s a dice toss out there. The organization and dedication of Edwards’ followers is being cited as a difference that can tilt results to him, especially given that he is the second choice amongst followers of other candidates who may not make the 15% viability threshold in Iowa. On the other hand, if Edwards himself begins to seem unviable in Iowa, I predict the swing will advantage Obama over Clinton.
