by WonkoKevin

Is the increased buzz share that Ron Paul got in November a sign that the polls may move in his direction in the coming weeks, or an indication that Paul bloggers are mobilizing even more as we hit December?  If Paul could pull out a third place finish in New Hampshire–and this is not inconceivable–it would be at the least a hassle for the other candidates, as Paul could then do even better in the southwest and west, more friendly to a libertarian.

Wonkosphere buzz share results for November are in and Ron Paul led all Republican candidates with 30% buzz share amongst conservative bloggers, his highest level yet.  Paul was about 2-3 times more popular than the other candidates who were all tightly packed: Giuliani (19%), Romney (16%), Thompson (13%), Huckabee (12%), and McCain (8%).

Change in buzz from from October to November, which predicts changes in poll numbers, is favorable to Paul (+4%) and Huckabee (+2%), and not so favorable to Giuliani (-2%) and Romney (-3%). 

The graph below shows Paul’s buzz share in November is his high-water mark over the past 5 months.  The increase in August is primarily due to the fact that when Wonkosphere went public, Ron Paul bloggers added themselves to our directory in large numbers.  The increase in November does not correspond with additional Paul-blogs being added–so either Paul-bloggers are being more active, or Paul is gaining more attention from “all-purpose” bloggers.

The graph also shows that Thompson and Huckabee have pretty much converged to the same point (and if early December is any indicator, Huckabee will be where Thompson was in June, and visa versa).  Unlike the poll numbers which have only moved recently, Huckabee’s buzz share increased much earlier, showing the predictive nature of buzz share.  Giuliani’s buzz share has remained remarkably constant, and as we’ve discussed, his buzz share goes up and down independent of the other candidates, which is good (he’s in charge of his own destiny).  McCain’s buzz share has never recovered from a bad August, while Romney has remained pretty consistent over the time frame.

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This entry was posted on Thursday, December 6th, 2007 at 8:55 am and is filed under Horse race, Paul, Huckabee, Politics 2.0. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.