Wonko’s Huck prediction on-target
by WonkoKevin
We predicted here a few weeks ago that you should expect Mike Huckabee to pick up some ground in the polls, due to his increased buzz share amongst conservative bloggers in September. Bingo–a new poll by Rasmussen, their first focused on Iowa, shows Huckabee (18%) and Fred Thompson (19%) in a virtual tie for second place, six points behind Mitt Romney (25%). Rudy Giuliani polls at fourth (13%), while John McCain only polled at 6%. Only 40% of the respondents however say that their choice is solid.
Maybe it’s time to start considering Huckabee as the wild card in this thing rather than McCain or Paul.
The implications of this are very interesting…
1. Romney’s strategy is based on winning three of the first four contests: NH, IA, and NV. If he loses Iowa, you have to wonder whether MSM is going to give him much credit for New Hampshire or Nevada.
2. Huckabee could conceivably win Iowa. With Huckabee grabbing Evangelical Christians and Romney grabbing other religious groups, the fight for the religous right is emerging. The Wonkosphere database suggests that good news for Huckabee is good news for Romney and Paul and bad news for Thompson and McCain (he appears unlinked to Giuliani popularity). So if Huckabee and Romney finish 1-2, it suggests the strong role that the religious right will play in primary season. While the convenient story is that Christians have lost their influence in Republican politics, Wonko thinks otherwise.
3. Fred Thompson could conceivably win, or place second. Given that he’s unlikely to do well in New Hampshire, this is as good as Fred Heads could hope for. A win here and a strong showing by Thompson and McCain in NH would signal a more limited influence by the religious right (I wouldn’t bet on it!).
4. Ron Paul just doesn’t grab the numbers in Iowa (he was behind Tancredo at 2%). According to this excellent analysis, perhaps he should be trying a Western approach instead.
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