by WonkoKevin

Ron Paul rises, but Hillary Clinton surprises; Wonkosphere.com reports that buzz share results for September indicate the possibility of a wild campaign season.

(PRWEB) October 8, 2007 — Texas representative and Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul lived up to his Internet fame in September. Wonkosphere.com has reported that Paul finished in first place amongst Republican candidates for buzz share from conservative bloggers. Buzz share measures how much the political blogosphere is talking about a particular candidate, and Paul’s 16% beat out Senator Fred Thompson (13%) and Mayor Rudy Giuliani (10%). The real untold story however of Internet politics in September is bloggers’ obsession with New York Senator Hillary Clinton.

In September, approximately one out of every four blog posts that talked about a presidential candidate talked about Senator Clinton. “Clinton (22%) barely beat out John Edwards (20%) for buzz share amongst liberal bloggers,” said Wonkosphere’s Kevin Dooley, “but she was all conservative bloggers could talk about — she had more conservative buzz share than Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani combined.”

“Senator Clinton’s dominance in the political blogosphere is important for three reasons,” added Wonkosphere’s Steve Corman. “First, it means she is succeeding in driving the discussion, which can be powerful. Second, because the race is being defined as Clinton versus Not-Clinton, it means that anyone on either side can potentially fill the contender role; the narrative is ‘Who will beat Hillary?’ Third, because conservative bloggers have concentrated on Clinton, their own Republican candidates have gone largely un-vetted by the blogging community.”

September Results Foretell Change
Because political bloggers tend to be thought-leaders in the political process, changes in candidate buzz share tend to be followed by changes in voter polls: the rise in Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee’s poll numbers, the resurgence of John McCain and John Edwards, and Mitt Romney’s recent dip all fit that pattern.

“Based on buzz share trends over the last couple of weeks, look for John Edwards to make a strong move for second place in the Democratic race, and expect Joe Biden’s numbers to increase,” said Dooley. “Amongst Republicans, expect Paul and Huckabee to pick up new voters and for Fred Thompson to lose some ground.” Corman added, “The elephant in the room is Al Gore. The Nobel Peace Prize is announced October 12 and some bloggers are predicting that a win will coincide with him jumping into the race. Then it’s really up for grabs.”

Amongst conservative bloggers, Mitt Romney (9%) came in fifth place in September buzz share, behind Clinton, Paul, Thompson, and Giuliani. Romney was followed by Barack Obama (5%), Mike Huckabee (5%), John McCain (5%), and John Edwards (5%). Amongst liberal bloggers, Barack Obama (13%) finished in third place in buzz share behind Clinton and Edwards, and was followed by Giuliani (11%), Thompson (7%), Biden (7%), McCain (5%), Romney (4%), Bill Richardson (3%), Chris Dodd (3%), and Paul (2%).

Technology makes measuring buzz share easy
The buzz share results come from Wonkosphere.com, a new web site which tracks and analyzes over 1200 political blogs each day. Patented technology from Arizona State University (ASU) is used to measure each candidate’s buzz share, as well as whether bloggers are ranting or raving about the candidate. Wonkosphere is operated by Crawdad Technologies, a new venture started by Corman and Dooley, who are also professors at ASU.

“We knew that the 2008 political campaign would be influenced in unpredictable ways by the Internet, “said Corman. “We created Wonkosphere.com as a way to give millions of political blog readers a way to stay on top of what was happening across the whole political blogosphere.”

“Technology allows us to keep track of hundreds of times more blogs than any individual has time to read,” added Dooley, “and it also allows the analysis to be completely unbiased, so that we can report what’s going on in a truly non-partisan fashion.”

This entry was posted on Monday, October 8th, 2007 at 8:19 am and is filed under Wonkosphere, Horse race, Paul, Clinton, Politics 2.0. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.