Keep an eye on Unity08
by WonkoKevin
Unity08 has not gotten as much buzz as I thought it would–yet. Unity08’s goals are to “(1) Elect a president and vice president who will reunite America, (2) Nominate that Unity Ticket in the first-ever online convention in June 2008, (3) Empower the people to pick the issues and the questions the candidates must answer, and (4) Change American politics forever.” It looks like Unity08 is taking in about $200-300k per month so far, so their fundraising is probably on par with a couple of the other third tier candidates. Some interesting data from a recent poll however suggest we should keep an eye on what’s happening at Unity08, because it might be predictive of what will swing the general election.
Unity08’s stated purpose is to get its own presidential slate selected. While such an outcome would be unprecedented, three factors support their hopes: (a) there’s a portion of the electorate not happy with any of the candidates, and (b) not happy with partisanship, and (c) who knows what crazy things can happen between now and then.
Data in the recent Unity08 survey caught my eye; take a look at the stated affiliation of survey respondents, all who are members of Unity08:
| Republican | 15% |
| Leaning Republican | 10% |
| Independent | 27% |
| Leaning Democratic | 13% |
| Democratic | 19% |
| Other party or no party | 13% |
Looks to me like Unity08 supporters are indeed that ever-important swing voter. We know that no matter who the Dems and Reps choose, it’s going to be close. Swing voters are where all the action will be come summer 2008.
Now take a look at their satisfaction with existing candidates:
On that 6 point scale respondents were asked to set a “bar for what you expect of our presidential nominee” and they put the number at 4.19. By comparison, on leadership potential they ranked the three announced frontrunners for each of the two party nominations as follows:
Barrack Obama 2.91
Rudy Giuliani 2.52
John Edwards 2.51
Mitt Romney 2.48
Hillary Clinton 2.30
John McCain 2.45Question: “Are you satisfied with the quality of candidates who have declared so far for the Democratic or Republican nominations?”
Democrats and Republicans both have good quality choices 19%
Democrats have good quality choices, Republicans do not 24%
Republicans have good quality choices, Democrats do not 14%
Neither party has good quality choices 43%
For the optimist, Obama seems to have a possible inroad into the swing voter demographic. For a realist, these numbers suggest the possibility that a third candidate will indeed try to be part of the horse race.
