Gore still strongest of second tier
by WonkoKevin
A few days ago I blogged about a piece by Open Left entitled “Why National Polls Don’t Matter (A History)”. We can use the same reasoning to come to the following conclusion: Pre-Iowa, there’s always room for a serious fourth contender. Interestingly, the Democrat that appears best to take that fourth seat is Al Gore.
According to my analysis of state polling data I found at Pollster, Bill Richardson and Al Gore are best situated to sit in the important fourth place slot, with perhaps the odds a bit more heavy towards Gore. If Gore doesn’t run, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel appear to have a way to go to threaten Richardson for the fourth spot.
The fourth spot is important because of expectations. Clinton, Edwards, and Obama forms the Big Three. The fourth slot is the person at the “top” of the second tier. If they can get close to the top three or, better yet, finish in second or third, they can gain the Big Mo.
State polls show Richardson in fourth place with fairly significant leads over Biden in IA, NH, NV, SC, MI, and CA. Throw Gore into the equation and things look different. Gore outpolled Edwards as late as July in NH; is just behind Richardson in NV; is close to Edwards in SC; tied with Obama for second place in FL; was in second place in MI during 2006; polled at 25%, second to Clinton in CA in March; and still is in second place in NY.
You can find the latest about Gore’s calendar here.
September 26th, 2007 at 7:21 am
[…] that can propel him into the Pack of Three. As I mentioned before, if Gore doesn’t run, Richardson is by far best positioned amongst the second tier to really make a run for it. Bookmark this […]