Volatility in the Thompson Market
Fred Thompson’s buzz share in the Wonkosphere has been a roller-coaster ride during the past month. He averaged around 40% among conservative bloggers in late July, then began a slide to also-ran levels through the first two weeks of August. Throughout this period, liberals paid him even less attention. But things have changed over the past week or so, when he has climbed back to a share fluctuating between 20% and 40% in both spheres.
Alas for Thompson, all buzz is not good buzz. Much of it reflects discussion of a complaint against Thompson, filed with the Federal Election Commission three days ago by blogger Lane Hudson of News for the Left (text of the complaint here). The story has legs, generating lots of blog buzz and even seeping into the Old Media via an AP story released on Monday. This should put to rest the question of whether bloggers really matter in present day politics.
Reaction to this story has been widespread and more or less predictable. Liberals are piling-on, congratulating Hudson, affixing thumbs to noses, wiggling fingers, and saying “neener, neener.” Meanwhile conservatives are grousing about double-standards. Say Anything points out that
during the 2004 campaign John Kerry, who went on to become the Democrats’ nominee, didn’t officially announce his candidacy until September 2nd, 2003, after announcing it in December 2002. That’s actually a longer exploratory timeline than Fred Thompson has run (he didn’t really get started until March), yet nobody on the left seems concerned about that tid-bit of information.
Some bloggers on the right are sounding rather like “card-carrying members of the ACLU” (to fondly recall a popular epiphet from a past election), like Henry who wonders whether there aren’t some Free Speech issues here.
But the negative Thompson buzz isn’t all about the FEC complaint. The Daily Kos, among other bloggers, thinks Fox News hates Grandpa Fred. Over at Ariana’s place, “registered Republican” Marvin Kitman wonders “why the folks are so nuts about Fred.” And the Influence Peddler flags “a spate of commenters in conservative blog threads worried about Fred Thompson’s health and advising him to spend more time with his family” that he suspects is the work of an organized smear campaign. Politicians wouldn’t do something like that, would they?
The buzz about Fred is not all bad. A number of bloggers like Texas Fred are reprinting the David Broader bouquet from the Sacramento Bee last week. Others are noting his conservative bona fides on taxes, gay marriage and abortion, while The Caucus groups him with other front-runners. His recent sniping at Rudy over NYC gun laws has also drawn return fire from the front runner’s campaign.
So while there is some buzz that an exploratory committee (nudge nudge, wink wink) would consider good, Thompson’s current up-tick mostly represents challenging coverage. As the current summary page shows, his tone over the last three days has run significantly below average in the conservative sphere, where it counts the most for an erstwhile primary candidate.
