Deconstructing straw
Bloggers are split as to whether the results from Iowa’s straw poll signify The Big Mo for Romney, or Huckabee, or both. The two of the dominated buzzshare yesterday in the Wonkosphere, Romney with 41% and Huckabee with 19%.
According to CNN, “Romney scored 4,516 votes, 31.5 percent, to outpace former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee who had 2,587 votes, 18.1 percent. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback was third with 2,192 votes, 15.3 percent.”
Liberal Values sums up the two points of opinion: “My initial impression to the news of the Iowa straw poll results was that it was a victory for Mike Huckabee, an insufficient victory for Mitt Romney, and a serious loss for Ron Paul’s supporters who believe the campaign’s goal is victory as opposed to spreading a message. Other bloggers have shared this view that Mike Huckabee, as opposed to Mitt Romney, may have come out of the straw poll with the victory.”
Ace of Spades argues, “Hugh Hewitt (of course a bit Romney supporter) reminds us that Romney did in fact win, and with the same percentage of votes that Bush did, and by a somewhat greater margin than Bush beat Forbes.” On the other side, Captains Quarters says, “Mike Huckabee showed surprising strength in Iowa. Despite not buying any advertising at all in the state, he managed to capture more than half of Romney’s total simply by his appearance at Ames.”
I think the key stat is that combined, Huckabee and Brownback got a larger percentage than Romney. Assuming one’s supporters end up voting for the other, that spells a weakness for Romney there.
