The Undeclareds
When all is said and done, perhaps the political lesson of 2008 campaign will be there’s danger in starting too early. While the declared candidates suffer early burnout and go broke, The Undeclareds rest on the bench waiting for the fourth quarter–rested, untainted, and ready to roll.
Real Politics reports the results of the most recent USA Today/Gallup poll:
Democrats
Clinton 42 (+5 vs. 7/6 - 7/8 poll)
Obama 19 (-2)
Gore 18 (+2)
Edwards 10 (-3)
Richardson 3 (+1)
Republicans
Giuliani 30 (n/c vs. 7/6 - 7/8 poll)
Thompson 19 (-1)
McCain 14 (-2)
Gingrich 10 (+4)
Romney 6 (-3)
Undeclared candidates (Gore, Thompson, Gingrich) hold 47% of the preference, i.e. almost half of those polled want someone other than a declared candidate. Other polls have shown “undecided” in front of the Republican camp, and then there’s Bloomberg. Of course Thompson is all-but declared, and Gingrich may depart (and go to work for him) as soon as Thompson declares. Gore has always been a September-to-November proposition.
If it ends up being Gore-Thompson, political wisdom will be radically different in 2012.
